Inter Milan vs. Atalanta Odds, Picks, Prediction: Back Reigning Serie A Champion on Moneyline Wager (Sept. 25)

Inter Milan vs. Atalanta Odds, Picks, Prediction: Back Reigning Serie A Champion on Moneyline Wager (Sept. 25) article feature image
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Andrea Staccioli/Insidefoto/LightRocket via Getty Images. Pictured: Inter Milan standout Lautaro Martinez.

Inter Milan vs. Atalanta Odds

Inter Milan Odds +100
Atalanta Odds +270
Draw +260
Over/Under 2.5 (-150 / +110)
Day | Time Saturday | 12 p.m. ET
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Reigning Serie A champion Inter Milan are off to a strong start this season ahead of Saturday’s showdown with Atalanta.

The Nerazzurri had a busy summer, having to replace manager Antonio Conte and world-class striker Romelu Lukaku. However, it appears they’re on the right track toward potentially retaining the Scudetto in the Italian top flight.

Meanwhile, Atalanta have been so close to breaking through toward the league crown over the past few years, but the current campaign isn’t off to an ideal start with Gian Piero Gasperini’s team is off to a slow beginning.

Let’s break down this matchup and find the betting value.

Inter Milan Hasn’t Missed Beat This Season

Through five games, Inter Milan have scored 18 goals on just 12.03 expected goals. This is a sign of their impressive quality in front of goal, especially strikers Edin Džeko and Joaquín Correa. The duo has combined to score six goals on just 2.05 xG this season.

Go-to striker Lautaro Martínez has three goals on 3.91 xG, which is a sign that going to lead this attack after Lukaku’s move to Chelsea. The Argentine has solid players who complement him well in different ways in Džeko and Correa.

Aside from Lukaku, Inter underwent another big change over the summer with Conte stepping down and being replaced by Simone Inzaghi. The new manager is a natural replacement for Conte, given both men use a 3-5-2 formation, which Inzaghi implemented at Lazio. The Nerazzurri are still using a trio at the back, ideally Stefan de Vrij, Alessandro Bistoni and Milan Skriniar.

One reason Conte left Inter is because they were going to have to sell players due to financial losses caused by the global pandemic. They’ve clearly replaced Lukaku (or at least tried to) with the aforementioned strikers. The other big move came at right back.

When Achraf Hakimi was sold to Paris Saint-Germain, Denzel Dumfries was brought in from PSV Eindhoven and is a natural replacement at right wingback. The Dutch sensation from European Championships has proven a key playmaker, with Hakan Calhanoglu and Nicolo Barella running things in midfield.

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Atalanta Enduring Rocky Beginning to Campaign

The xG dynamos from seasons past are off to a sluggish beginning, but the Bergamo-based side still enters the weekend fifth in the table.

Atalanta have scored just six goals from five games, creating just 6.85 non-penalty xG (NPxG) along the way. They averaged more than 2.00 NPxG per match last season, so this is a massive drop-off in production.

So why is this happening? Well, there hasn’t been much in terms of big changes in attack. Actually, that part of the team has remained intact. The biggest departure was in defense, with Cristian Romero going to Tottenham Hotspur. He was replaced by Juventus center back Merih Demiral.

You’d think things are going to eventually improve on the attacking front . Atalanta registered 2.11 xG in a 2-1 win over Sassuolo last weekend, which was a very encouraging sign.

Betting Analysis & Pick

Last season, Atalanta took just one point from two games against Inter. The Nerazzurri were able to contain La Dea’s high-powered attack. The style will be slightly more open than last season under Conte, but I anticipate a similar level of control for Inter in this game.

While the xG numbers aren’t super for either team, Inter have the quality to get the job done in this contest, averaging almost 2.5 NPxG per game while Atalanta is slightly more than 1.00 NPxG in the category.

The best moneyline number for the reigning champion can be found at BetMGM, so I will go there and play the host side to -110 odds.

Pick: Inter Milan ML (+100)

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