Inter Milan vs. Barcelona Champions League Betting Preview (Tuesday, October 4)
Photo by Marcio Machado/Eurasia Sport Images/Getty Images. Pictured: Robert Lewandowski.
- Barcelona is favored to get a result on the road in the Champions League against Inter Milan.
- Brett Pund analyzes the match and discusses why that is warranted.
- Read on for his best bet and analysis.
Inter Milan vs. Barcelona Odds
|Over/Under||2.5 (-175 / +125)|
|Day | Time||Tuesday | 3 p.m. ET|
|How To Watch||TV | Paramount+|
|Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.|
In the marquee match on Tuesday, Inter Milan host Barcelona in the Champions League for a game between two of the biggest clubs in Europe.
If you look at the history of the tournament, these are two of just eight teams that have won at least three UCL titles.
The sides have the same results in the competition so far this season by losing to Bayern Munich and defeating Viktoria Plzeň. However, the Spanish team has the edge in the table due to a two-goal advantage on goal difference.
With key pieces missing for the Italian club, I’m expecting Barcelona to pick up a huge three points at the San Siro.
Pressure is starting to mount on manager Simone Inzaghi as his team enters the week in ninth in Serie A on 12 points.
A result in this one could go a long way to helping him, but he is going to have to do so without multiple starters.
Due to injuries, striker Romelu Lukaku and midfielder Marcelo Brozović are both likely set to miss out on Wednesday, and they could be joined by Lautaro Martínez.
This would mean that veteran forward Edin Džeko would lead the line for the Italian side, who did find the back of the net in the last UCL game.
One of the stories of the summer was the transfer window that Barcelona put together with all of the new signings, but none of the additions were bigger than Robert Lewandowski.
The Polish talisman has not disappointed. In the nine games in all competitions since his arrival, he has scored 12 goals to go along with a pair of assists.
With him leading the attack, Xavi’s team has been able to generate four expected goals in the opening two Champions League fixtures, according to fbref.com, which only trails Manchester City and Napoli.
The Catalan club has also won the xG battle in both games, including the defeat at Bayern Munich.
Betting Analysis & Pick
When I look at this match, I want to back the visitors, but I need a better number than what is being offered on the moneyline. So, my best bet is a Single Game Parlay, pairing a Barcelona victory with the total falling under 4.5 goals at +130 odds at BetMGM.
For as impressive as the offensive numbers have been, games involving the Spanish side have had less than five goals in five of seven matches this season. Meanwhile, all but one of Inter’s fixtures in all competitions have had at least five goals.
I also struggle to see how Inter will be able to create consistent chances, especially with the key attackers likely out for the game. It also doesn’t help that Barcelona’s defense has only allowed 0.756 xG per 90 minutes this season.
All of the signs point to a low-scoring victory for the Catalan club, and I love using this SGP to get plus-money odds.
The Pick: Single Game Parlay: Barcelona ML & Total Under 4.5 Goals (+130)