La Liga Betting Odds, Picks and Predictions: Leganes vs. Granada (Monday, June 22)


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Granada at Leganes Odds, Pick

Granada odds +265 [BET NOW]
Leganes odds +128 [BET NOW]
Draw Odds +195 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 2 (+123/-150)
Time Monday at 4 pm ET
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Time is running out on Leganes’ time in La Liga. Los Pepineros are five points from safety and a loss to Granada on Monday could be the final nail in their relegation coffin.

Leganes aren’t a good team by any stretch of the imagination but they have been quite unfortunate this season. According to Expected Points, no team in La Liga has had worse luck than Los Pepineros, who have played more like a mid-table team, not one headed for relegation.

Granada have been solid, if unspectacular, this season but a mid-table finish should be considered a success for El Grana’s first season back in La Liga. Granada have an outside chance at a Europa League spot but Leganes should be the more desperate club on Monday.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

Leganes Granada
Goals for per game 0.77 1.23
Expected goals for per game 1.2 1.26
Goals against per game 1.47 1.2
Expected goals against per game 1.37 1.28
Total goals per game 2.23 2.43
Total expected goals per game 2.57 2.54

Neither of these teams play high-event soccer and it’s no wonder that the Over/Under is set at 2 with the Under juiced to -150. Bookmakers are expecting a snoozer and the numbers tell you why.

Granada’s defense has conceded the sixth-fewest expected goals in La Liga this season and, on paper, should be able to keep Leganes, the second-worst offense by expected goals in the circuit, at bay in this match.

On the other side of the coin Leganes’ defense grades out as mediocre, but Granada’s offense isn’t anything to write home about, either.

Both of these teams have played three games since La Liga picked back up and Granada has been in better form:

  • Granada: 4.1 expected goals for, 3.08 expected goals against
  • Leganes: 3.07 expected goals for, 3.24 expected goals against

There are a lot of signals pointing to the draw in this match. First of all, the low Over/Under tells you that we shouldn’t expect a high-scoring thriller. Secondly, both of these teams boast defense-first profiles and their offenses leave a lot to be desired.

Even if someone scores an early goal, it’s hard to imagine either of these attacks running away with this match, and thus, the draw should always be in reach.


Pick: Draw (+195)
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