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La Liga Odds, Betting Pick & Prediction: How to Play Real Madrid vs. Real Sociedad (Sunday, June 21)

La Liga Odds, Betting Pick & Prediction: How to Play Real Madrid vs. Real Sociedad (Sunday, June 21) article feature image
  • The latest La Liga odds make Real Madrid a favorite (odds: -139) against Real Sociedad on Sunday afternoon, with the over/under set at 3.
  • Real Madrid has a chance to move into first place in La Liga with a victory, but their odds are inflated, giving value to picking Real Sociedad.
  • Michael Leboff makes his case for betting the big underdog.

Real Madrid at Real Sociedad Odds, Pick

Real Madrid odds -139 [BET NOW]
Real Sociedad odds +330 [BET NOW]
Draw Odds +320 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 3 (+100/-121)
Time Sunday at 4 pm ET
TV beIN Sports

Odds as of Friday afternoon and via BetMGM. Get an INSTANT $500 deposit match at BetMGM today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.

Real Madrid will have the opportunity to leap-frog Barcelona and take over first place in La Liga with a victory over Real Sociedad on Sunday afternoon.

Madrid haven’t seem to miss a beat since La Liga returned, defeating Eibar and Villareal by a combined score of 6-1 and only conceding 0.59 expected goals in the two games combined.

Real Sociedad have not fared well in their two games since La Liga picked back up, drawing Osasuna and losing to Alaves in a pair of matches they needed to win if they were going to get serious about their hunt for Champions League football.

Sociedad only generated 1.32 expected goals for combined in those two games. That is not a good sign before taking on the second-best defense in La Liga.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

Sociedad Real Madrid
Goals for per game 1.59 2.28
Expected goals for per game 1.6 2.12
Goals against per game 1.24 0.72
Expected goals against per game 1.35 1.06
Total goals per game 2.83 2.59
Total expected goals per game 2.95 3.06

Real Madrid are an elite team on both sides of the ball, but Real Sociedad are no pushovers, ranking sixth in both expected goals for and expected goals against. Their form is a bit worrying, but that has provided bettors with a decent buy-low opportunity on Sunday afternoon.

That isn’t to say I think Sociedad will win this match, the odds tell us that Madrid has a 55.3% chance of winning compared to just 22.1% for Sociedad, but I do think it will be a lot tighter than expected.

I think Real Sociedad are the value side in this match and there are a couple of ways to bet into them. A play on the moneyline at +330 or backing them at +240 on the “Draw No Bet” line are where I’m looking. That being said, I do think you can probably wait out the market as I expect Real Madrid to take most of the money in this match.


Pick: Real Sociedad (+330) or Draw No Bet (+240)
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CO, NJ, IN, WV only.

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