Las Palmas vs Getafe Prediction | Friday La Liga Pick
Quality Sport Images/Getty. Pictured: Julian Araujo.
Las Palmas vs Getafe Odds
| Las Palmas Odds | +130 |
| Getafe Odds | +250 |
| Draw | +200 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 +170 / -225 |
Soccer in Spain kicks off on Friday in the Canary Islands as Las Palmas host Getafe at the Gran Canaria Stadium.
The home side has had a solid start in its return to La Liga, sitting in 11th with 18 points.
Meanwhile, the same can be said about the visitors, who enter on an eight-match unbeaten run and eighth in the league table.
This sets up to be one of those typical cagey games in the Spanish top flight, but I do see betting value in the weekend opener.
Read on for my Las Palmas vs Getafe prediction.
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Las Palmas
After five campaigns in the Segunda, Las Palmas have shown that they have the quality to stay in the top division, especially with their strong home form.
On the island, García Pimienta’s side only has one loss in five matches, which includes a signature win over Atlético Madrid.
One of the key performers so far has been goalkeeper Álvaro Valles, who leads La Liga in post-shot expected goals minus goals allowed, per fbref.com.
When you combine Valles with a strong defense, this could be enough to keep the club in the Spanish top flight.
Getafe
After returning to save the club late last season, manager José Bordaláshas carried that momentum into a strong start in this campaign.
During this eight-match unbeaten run, Getafe have won the expected goals battle in five games. However, six of those fixtures have ended in draws.
Bordalás has also found a star striker to lead the squad in Borja Mayoral, who has found the back of the net eight times in the league.
With only Jude Bellingham and Antoine Griezmann scoring more, Mayoral has done a great job of replacing the missing goals with Enes Ünal out injured.
Las Palmas vs Getafe
Prediction
When I was diving into this game, I expected to want to back the home side, but Getafe do a great job at grabbing draws.
Although I don’t see many goals in this one, there is no betting value in the low total. However, I do see value in attacking another market.
So, my best bet is for the first half to finish in a draw at -110 odds, which I would play to -120.
At home this season, all but one match on the island has gone into halftime tied. In fact, there has only been one goal in the first half at the Gran Canaria Stadium.
If you look at all Las Palmas’ fixtures, this same play would have cashed in nine of 14 league games. Only Mallorca (10) have played in more first-half draws.
Getafe have also seen nine matches go into the break all tied. Most of those have come at home, but you still see this play cashing on the road.
In the last three games against similar opposition Granada, Celta Vigo and Mallorca, this bet would have won in them all.
My lean on betting a side would be towards Las Palmas on the Asian handicap line of -0.25, but more numbers point to the first-half draw being a better play.
Pick: First Half Draw (-110)
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