Leeds United vs. West Ham United Odds, Picks, Prediction: Hammers Off & Running in Premier League Season (Sept. 25)

Leeds United vs. West Ham United Odds, Picks, Prediction: Hammers Off & Running in Premier League Season (Sept. 25) article feature image
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Leeds vs. West Ham Odds

Leeds Odds +200
West Ham Odds +130
Draw +270
Over/Under 2.5 (-160/ +130)
Day | Time Saturday | 10 a.m. ET
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We have a tale of two starts on Saturday when West Ham travels north to take on Leeds at Elland Road.

It should be an exciting fixture with plenty of chances as the combined goals between the two teams is 35, and the two average over three total goals per match through five games.

The Hammers secured victories in both matches last season against newly-promoted Leeds, but Marcelo Bielsa’s team will be desperate for its first win of this campaign.

What Happened to Leeds After Solid Campaign?

The solid return to the Premier League last season hasn’t carried over into the 2021-22 campaign so far for Leeds, who are winless with draws against Everton, Burnley and Newcastle to go with heavy defeats to Manchester United and Liverpool.

Many were expecting Bielsa to build off the success from last year, especially after the addition of winger Daniel James from Man United late in the summer transfer window.

If things are going to turn around, Leeds has to fix the leaky defense, which is one of just three in the league to give up double-digit tallies in goals (12) and expected goals against (10.3) according to fbref.com.

To make matters worse, Leeds has had a long list of absentees in previous matches due to suspension or injury, which might have added regulars Raphinha, Patrick Bamford and Luke Ayling after last weekend’s draw with Newcastle.

Leeds has been decent at creating chances, ranking in the top half of the table in xG (7.0) and shots per match (14.20), but it’s hard to pick up results when you have to outscore your opponent every match.

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West Ham Making Noise to Start EPL Season

It has been a decent start to the season for West Ham, who were undefeated before allowing a late goal last weekend in the defeat to Manchester United.

David Moyes’ club has been an exciting team to watch in the opening stages, with 11 goals on 8.2 expected goals. The Hammers have also been solid at the back, ranking in the top half of the table in xG against at 5.5.

Michail Antonio continues to be the main man for West Ham this season, leading the way with four goals in four starts and scoring in all but one game he has played in. The Jamaican has also chipped in with a team-leading three assists.

Saïd Benrahma has been the other key contributor so far this campaign with three goals and two assists.

The Hammers also bolstered their defense over the summer with the additions of center-backs Kurt Zouma (Chelsea) and Craig Dawson (Watford) to make this one of the best squads outside the top-4.

Betting Analysis & Picks

When you look at the forms of both teams coming into the weekend, it seems odd that West Ham is available at a decent price of +130 on the moneyline via DraftKings.

It makes you want to ask how this could be, but I’m not overthinking here. I’m playing the visitors at +130 to win this match.

Outside of all of the metrics above, you have to factor in how Leeds has fared in matches against better opposition that are a step up in class. Bielsa’s team lost 5-1 to Manchester United on the opening day and 3-0 to Liverpool.

This game does scream goals as well, but I think the total set at three for the game is right where it should be. You can get creative in the props market if you are looking to play the total, or you might even look at player props with Antonio for West Ham to score or be the first scorer at decent values.

I’m going to keep it simple here and back the Hammers to continue their hot start.

Pick: West Ham ML (+130)

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