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Ligue 1 Betting Odds, Picks, Preview, Predictions: Our Best Bets, Featuring Marseille vs. Lille

Ligue 1 Betting Odds, Picks, Preview, Predictions: Our Best Bets, Featuring Marseille vs. Lille article feature image
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Giuseppe Maffia/NurPhoto via Getty Images. Pictured: Marseille standout Dimitri Payet.

The action continues in Ligue 1 this weekend, with a number of intriguing matchups to choose from on the schedule.

Squads atop the table, like Paris Saint-Germain and Marseille, will be active, while the struggling Lille and Lyon look to correct their current season paths.

Only nine goals were scored across three games last weekend, but the excitement should be high for the slate over the next two days and we’ll be targeting a total among our picks for that reason.

Here are our best bets for the weekend across the French top flight.

Ligue 1 Best Bets

PSG vs. Stade Brest

PSG Odds -400
Brest Odds +1000
Draw +550
Over/Under 3.5 (-110 / -115)
Day | Time Saturday | 3 p.m. ET
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Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Fading PSG seems like a daunting task in Ligue 1, but it remains an appealing route based on the metrics behind the team’s success.

With only a 0.74 xG difference per game at home, the Parisians have taken advantage of their opportunities well to dominate the league from a points perspective, but their play hasn’t shown the same type of dominance.

Brest’s -0.29 xG difference on the road is about a goal off the pace of PSG, and following a 3-0 defeat at the hands of Nice, in which Nice was down Morgan Schneiderlin due to a red card for a majority of the game. Brest wasn’t able to capitalize at all, and it was punished for it.

PSG will be without a trio of players due to Africa Cup of Nations obligations, those being Achraf Hakimi, Idrissa Gueye and Abdou Diallo. Though the club certainly has the depth to deal with the absences, it furthers the case for a play on Brest.

Getting a goal and a half at plus-money, the value is there to go back to the well with a Brest side that was thoroughly outplayed last week and will be looking to correct that wrong.

Pick: Brest +1.5 (+130)

Troyes vs. Lyon

Troyes Odds +400
Lyon Odds -155
Draw +320
Over/Under 2.5 (-125 / +100)
Day | Time Sunday | 11 a.m. ET
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There’s a reason why Troyes is in 16th in Ligue 1 and struggling to find consistent results in any manner. However, I’m going down the rabbit hole to back a team that hasn’t won a league game since December 1.

At home, Troyes xG/game differential of -.14 isn’t actually that bad for a team that is so deep in the table. Lyon, on the other hand, has a -0.41 xG differential on the road due to its porous defense that has allowed 1.83 xGA/game away from home.

Considering Lyon is also missing Islam Slimani and Karl Toko-Ekambi due to AFCON, this is a clear spot to take advantage of an undervalued team in Troyes. Much like Brest, Troyes is plus-money to get a win or a draw and its underlying statistics actually favoring the side, it’s hard to ignore the value.

Another side that could really use one or more points, and another situation where the projected outcome, at a very base level, is geared towards the underdog in a better manner than is reflected by the odds.

Back Troyes to get a result.

Pick: Troyes +0.5 (+125)

Marseille vs. Lille

Marseille Odds +135
Lille Odds +205
Draw +245
Over/Under 2.5 (+105 / -130)
Day | Time Sunday | 2:45 p.m. ET
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Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

While Lille has looked like one of the better teams in the Champions League, that form hasn’t translated to Ligue 1, where Les Dogues sit in 10th place.

Marseille has fared much better, as the side sits five points clear of fourth with a game in hand. It is in a great position to make a run at a Champions League position, but this fixture will serve as an important test.

Rather than take a side between these two teams, I believe that the value is with the total. Considering their home and away splits, the two sides generate 2.98 xG/game in this context, and they concede 2.64 xG/match.

So why is the over being juiced in this tie? I’m not exactly sure, but it’s a position that I’d like to take advantage of. Lille’s prior three games have combined for a minimum of four goals while Marseille’s games have accounted for six in that same span.

This price is just too good to pass up.

Pick: Total Over 2.5 Goals (+105)

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