Liverpool vs Luton Town Odds, Predictions, Picks | Premier League Match Preview
Clive Rose/Getty. Pictured: Mo Salah.
Liverpool vs Luton Town Odds
| Liverpool Odds | -550 |
| Luton Odds | +1200 |
| Draw | +700 |
| Over / Under | 3.5 -110 / -110 |
Liverpool will try to broaden their Premier League lead again on Wednesday night when they host a Luton Town side that recently slipped back into the relegation zone.
The Reds saw their league lead shrink to one point after Manchester City defeated Brentford 1-0 on Tuesday, making up the game in hand they've had since playing in the Club World Cup. But they should be confident of their ability to pick up three more points after an entirely comfortable 4-1 victory at Brentford on the weekend.
The Hatters sank into 18th place on goal difference after a 2-1 home loss to Manchester United Sunday followed by Everton's 1-1 home draw against Crystal Palace on Monday. And while they took a point off Liverpool in their previous meeting at Kenilworth Road, Luton have only nine points from their travels this season while Liverpool have dropped only four points at Anfield.
That previous meeting finished as a 1-1 draw on Nov. 5, when Luiz Diaz's strike five minutes into second-half stoppage time canceled what would've been a famous Luton win after Tanith Chong put the Hatters in front on 80 minutes.
Read on for my Liverpool vs Luton Town prediction.
Liverpool
Mo Salah is questionable to make a second consecutive appearance for the Reds after playing his first game since New Year's Day in the win at Brentford, with Jurgen Klopp saying he's dealing with some fatigue related to the hamstring issue he picked up while on duty for Egypt at the African Cup of Nations.
Any doubts of Salah's readiness to return were quelled when he came on just before halftime at Brentford and quickly assisted one goal and scored another. And while Liverpool had posted a 6-1-1 record in all competitions without their Egyptian catalyst, his absence was noticeable in a comprehensive 3-1 defeat at Arsenal early this month.
Salah's 15 goals and nine assists are both team highs, but if he can't play Wednesday his absence may be more profound than in the previous weeks given there are also concerns around Curtis Jones, Diogo Jota and Darwin Nunez.
All three were productive during Salah's absence, and only the latter has any chance to play Wednesday according to Klopp after Nunez was removed at halftime against Brentford for precautionary reasons.
While Liverpool have been much better in their travels than last season, Saturday's victory followed a pattern that has been more familiar at home of adding on to leads. It was just the third time Jurgen Klopp's men had scored three or more on their travels this season, while they've done so in nine of their 13 league matches at Anfield.
Luton Town
Luton have performed well in nearly every match they've played at Kenilworth Road and yet don't have that many points to show for it.
All but one game at the smallest ground in Premier League history have been decided by a single goal. Yet their draw against Liverpool is the only point they've taken off a team in the top five, with only Villa still to visit their cozy confines.
The feeling among many was that they were unfortunate not to take a point against Man United, particularly after Ross Barkley's header from a free kick struck the woodwork in second-half stoppage time.
But the Hatters scored on their only chance with an xG value above 0.16 on Carlton's Morris 14th-minute strike to cut the deficit in half. And they were fortunate not to trail by two after Thomas Kaminski saved Rasmus Hojlund's attempt at a third in the 78th minute.
Luton also lost leading scorer Elijah Adebayo to an injury suffered during warmups on Sunday and will not be available on Wednesday. He had scored five of his nine league goals during his last five PL appearances, including a hat trick in a 4-0 home win over Brighton, easily the Hatters' most decisive victory of the season.
The Hatters shocked most of the league with a 4-4 draw at Newcastle United in their last away fixture. But they've lost every other trip to a top-half team so far, with league journeys to Arsenal, Manchester City and Tottenham still to come.
Liverpool vs Luton Town
Prediction
In terms of the straight moneyline, the value is on the hosts here. Put simply: would you expect the Reds to win this game nine out of 11 times when playing at home? Of course you would. Even in their current injury moment, the most crucial absence Wednesday might be on Luton's side in Adebayo, given how few other options they have.
But you'll have to get a little exotic if you want to back the Reds and also get a decent return on your wager, preferably with a book that allows you to parlay a total goals wager with a two-way or three-way handicap. Because there are a couple of matching trends at play here that suggest the range of likely outcomes is fairly narrow.
This is very likely a match where Liverpool bosses the ball, and Liverpool have been one of the best teams in the PL at not being vulnerable to the counterattack in games where that dynamic takes shape.
That's particularly true at home, where they've won six of seven games in which they've had 63% possession or more while only conceding three goals total in those matches. The total has come in under 4.5 goals in all all seven games, and the Reds have covered a -1.5 goal spread in all six wins.
The trends are less pronounced overall for Luton, but the under 4.5 total and that -1.5 spread for opponents have cashed simultaneously in three of seven away matches when Luton is at 36% possession or less.
The prices vary significantly on a same-game parlay of Liverpool -1.5 and total under 4.5 across different books. But at ESPNBet, +161 odds and a 38.3% implied probability is good value.
Pick: Liverpool -1.5 and under 4.5, same-game parlay (+161. via ESPNBet)
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