Luton Town vs Arsenal Prediction | Premier League Match Picks
James Gill/Getty. Pictured: Ben White.
Luton Town vs Arsenal Odds
| Luton Town Odds | +1400 |
| Arsenal Odds | -500 |
| Draw | +550 |
| Over / Under | 3.5 +120 / -150 |
Arsenal look to maintain their hold on the Premier League lead when they pay their first visit to Luton Town's Kenilworth Road in more than three decades Tuesday.
When the dust settled from the weekend, Arsenal's lead had widened to two points over Liverpool and three on Manchester City. The Gunners began the weekend with 2-1 home win over Wolverhampton Wanderers on Saturday. On Sunday, Liverpool rallied from behind late in a 4-3 home win over Fulham, and City twice gave the lead back in a 3-3 home draw against Tottenham.
Luton's survival chances in their first top-flight season since the early 1990s have been boosted by the 10-point deduction handed to Everton last month. But after securing their first-ever home Premier League win, 2-1 over Crystal Palace two weekends ago, the Hatters were a very clear second-best in a 3-1 loss at Brentford on Saturday. They begin the first full midweek slate of the season only two points clear of the relegation line.
This is the sides' first meeting since a Boxing Day fixture in the old English 1st Division in 1991, which Luton won 1-0 at home.
Here is my Luton Town vs Arsenal prediction.
Luton Town
The overall metrics suggest the Hatters should be sitting even lower than their current precarious 17th-place perch. The reason they're currently above the line — if only barely — is because of their home form at one of the Premier League's most uniquely intimate grounds.
Luton's home expected-goals difference is 15th in the Premier League at -1.4, and their true goal difference of -2 is tied with three other teams for 12th. As a sample, their home schedule has had an average level of difficulty, with visits from Liverpool and Tottenham sprinkled in among those six games, and without any visits from their fellow newly promoted sides.
I might even be bullish about a possible historic upset here if the attacking capabilities weren't so limited. Manager Rob Edwards' squad has only scored six times at home and hasn't generated more than 1.4 non-penalty xG in any of their home league fixtures.
Only Everton — who have oddly been much better away than at home this season — have scored fewer goals in front of their home supporters.
Arsenal
While Arsenal have played some of the most aesthetically appealing football on Earth before their home fans, on their league travels they've been decidedly more pragmatic this season.
No Gunners away game in any competition has seen more than four goals scored, and in the league the total has gone above 2.5 goals only twice — in a 2-2 draw at Chelsea and a 4-0 victory over Bournemouth.
And yet those travels have mostly brought success, including three 1-0 wins — matching the total they posted in the entirety of the 2022-2023 campaign.
It's fair to note Mikel Arteta's squad has been dealing with some early-season injuries up front. And they've finally been able to start their first-choice front line of Gabriel Jesus, Gabriel Martinelli, and Bukayo Saka for three consecutive games.
By the same token, this could be the third start in seven days for that trio after Champions League duty last Wednesday, wear and tear that could make producing excellence against a resolute defense a bit more challenging.
Luton Town vs Arsenal
Prediction
When you look at both teams' home/away splits, it's hard not to like playing the under 3.5 at -141 odds and an implied 58.5% probability.
That wager has cashed on all but two occasions between Luton's home matches and Arsenal's travels. Teams are combining to create just 2.6 xG per 90 minutes over those 12 matches. And we're also entering the time of year when games traditionally tend to get a bit tighter.
You might argue that Arsenal's 4-0 win over Bournemouth is a sign they might be prime to romp against an inferior opponent, regardless of venue. But Cherries' manager Andoni Iraola throws quite a bit more caution to the wind than does Luton's Edwards.
Why not play under 3.0 or even under 2.5 for a better return? It's respect for Arsenal's quality that makes me feel more comfortable accepting more vig in exchange for a greater margin of error.
Why not parlay the under with an Arsenal win? It's respect for the Hatters' home form. If anything, I think there's a better argument for parlaying a low total with a Luton-or-draw double-chance bet, at least if you're the kind to go seeking big payouts.
Pick: Under 3.5 (-141 via BetRivers)
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