Man City vs Inter Milan Odds, Pick | Champions League Final Preview
Marc Atkins, Marco Canoniero/Getty. Pictured: Erling Haaland and Alessandro Bastoni.
Man City vs Inter Milan Odds
Man City Odds | -200 |
Inter Milan Odds | +550 |
| Draw | +333 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-110 / -110) |
| To Lift the Cup | (-400 / +330) |
| Odds via bet365. Get the latest soccer odds here. | |
Man City vs Inter Milan has arrived. The Cityzens will compete again in a Champions League final, looking to capture the trophy that the club has been seeking for a long time.
On the other side of the pitch will be Inter Milan, who have gone on a Cinderella run to Istanbul after they captured a Serie A title in the 2020-21 season.
Will Pep Guardiola and City be able to put a bow on a season that has already included two trophies, or will Inter Milan spoil a City Champions League party?
Read on for our Man City vs Inter Milan pick, with full team previews for both squads.
Man City Team Preview
Cunningham: Guardiola is the best manager in the world and it’s because of his ability to constantly tinker with his tactics to find the right balance. He has changed his formation to a 3-2-4-1 and is playing four center backs plus Rodri, giving Manchester City ultimate defensive control. Granted, all of his defenders are outstanding ball carriers and passers, so there isn’t too much of a drop off and City can continue to play out of the back and control possession.
You’ve also seen Guardiola’s City put on counter-pressing clinics against some of the best build up teams in the world. In the second leg against Real Madrid, City forced 12 high turnovers, which ultimately led them to a 78.3% field tilt, meaning that Real Madrid could not build out from the back.
However, we’ve also seen City be a tad vulnerable defensively, most notably in the FA Cup Final against Manchester United when they conceded 2.0 xG and nine penalty box shots to a side that didn’t really even try to build out from the back. In fact, City have conceded 5.5 xG in their last three matches to good transitional teams in Brighton, Brentford and Manchester United.
There is really only one team that plays a similar system to that of Inter’s 3-5-2 in the Premier League and it just so happens to be the only team that has done the double over Manchester City this season: Brentford. Inter’s 3-5-2 will become a 5-3-2 out of possession, which means City won't have numerical advantages against the last line of defense and will likely have difficulties playing through the middle of the pitch.
All of the pressure is on City as they have the opportunity to win their first ever Champions League title and become the second English team to win the treble. However, they must not take this Inter team lightly or they will get punished.
Inter Milan Team Preview
Dabbundo: If you’re trying to draw up a path for success for Inter Milan in this matchup, it starts with the solid defensive structure and ends with the Italian side’s ability to attack in transition. Inter had the second-most goals scored in transition during the Champions League this season and also were one of the most efficient set piece teams in Serie A. In a one-off final, when you have the less talented team, you need transitions or set pieces to level the playing field and win on variance.
Only Crystal Palace conceded a higher percentage of their total xG this season in England from set pieces than Manchester City, and Inter’s set piece goal in the semifinal is what enabled them to break open AC Milan.
Similar to how Chelsea defended Manchester City in the 2021 final, Inter have multiple good ball winners and destroyers in central midfield, a solid back three to match up physically with Erling Haaland and a defensive focus on forcing the ball into wide areas for crosses.
One challenge for Inter is that Real Madrid weren't able to overcome City’s press and find the outlet ball to Vinicius Junior in the second leg of the semifinal in Manchester. Although this is on a neutral field, City’s press could keep Inter stuck defending in their own half for large stretches, which could be a problem for the older Inter squad in this matchup.
Man City vs Inter Milan Pick
Dabbundo: Even though Manchester City is clearly priced as the best team in the world, the fatigue was evident in the second half of the Cityzens' 2-1 win against Manchester United last week. Inter are the fresher team right now and Guardiola was forced to go to his subs earlier than he wanted to on Saturday because of that.
I’d bet Inter at +1.25 (-120 or better). The Italian side had a favorable draw to get here, but it was their excellent defensive solidity that gave them the high floor as a dark horse when this knockout stage began. That remains true here and while City are likely to win the treble on Saturday, my fair price is +275 for Inter. You can find +340/+350 on them to lift the trophy too.
Pick: Inter Milan +1.25 (-120 or better)
Cunningham: Inter are a team that can give City some problems. Their ability to easily play five at the back out of possession in their 3-5-2 won’t allow City to create numerical advantages against the last line of defense. Plus, having three central midfielders who are also good defensively helps clog up the middle of the pitch and forces City to play the ball in wide areas.
This is a team that is also perfectly fine conceding possession and playing in transition. Inter were the No. 1 offense in Italy this season in terms of xG and their striking duo of Romelu Lukaku and Lautaro Martinez is capable of giving City’s center backs problems on transition and on set pieces.
Inter are also a capable pressing team if they want to be, considering they are top five in Serie A in PPDA, high turnovers and opponent build up completion percentage allowed. However, they’re facing the best build up team in the world, so I highly doubt we’ll see them press high with regularity.
Manchester City are the best team in the world and have been +0.5 better on xGD per 90 minutes in a more difficult league (I have England rated 0.55 goals better than Italy), so on a neutral field I can’t get to them being this high of a favorite.
With how good Inter’s offense has been in transition, their line to score in the match is far too low at -145.
Pick: Inter over 0.5 goals (-145 or better)
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