Premier League Odds, Picks, Predictions: Manchester City vs. Southampton Preview (Sept. 18)

Premier League Odds, Picks, Predictions: Manchester City vs. Southampton Preview (Sept. 18) article feature image
Credit:

Robbie Jay Barratt – AMA/Getty Images. Pictured: Tai Sodje of Manchester City.

  • Manchester City are a massive favorite over Southampton on Saturday morning in Premier League action.
  • Brett Pund has a clever way of getting City at plus-money, though he'll need some help from Southampton, as well.
  • Get his Saturday EPL pick below.

Man City vs. Southampton Odds

Man City Odds -650
Southampton Odds +1500
Draw +800
Over/Under 3.5 (+100 / -125)
Day | Time Saturday | 10 a.m. ET
How To Watch USA Network | fuboTV
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Everyone will be expecting another Manchester City victory on Saturday when they host Southampton at the Etihad Stadium, and the betting odds reflect this as well.

The Citizens enter the match as hefty favorites on the moneyline via DraftKings, or you have to lay -2.5 (+125) against a Southampton squad that has earned a draw in three of four matches this season.

You should always expect goals when Man City takes the field, but could we see a team that is a bit overpriced to give value to the visitors this weekend?

Manchester City is Rolling Offensively

Pep Guardiola has his side flying out of the blocks to start this Premier League season, with three shutout victories over Norwich, Arsenal and Leicester after a defeat at Tottenham on the opening day.

Even after the departure of longtime striker Sergio Agüero over the summer, Man City’s attack hasn’t missed a beat, ranking second in the league in expected goals (11.2) per fbref.com and tying for the most goals (11) with their Manchester rivals. Nine different players have scored this season to illustrate just how prolific they can be.

City’s $100 million man Jack Grealish is starting to hit his stride with his new squad, following his goal and assist in his Champions League debut in midweek action.

Defensively, led by last season’s Premier League Player of the Year Rúben Dias, they have also been one of the strongest squads, posting the lowest xG allowed at 2.3 and joining Liverpool and Chelsea as the only clubs to allow just one goal this season.

It’s scary to think that Man City is doing this with midfielder Kevin De Bruyne only playing 12 minutes in league action due to injury.

Southampton Poised to Break Out

It has been a steady start for Southampton to open the new campaign, with three straight draws against Manchester United, Newcastle and West Ham following the defeat in the opener to Everton. The Saints would sign up for a fourth-straight draw if it was offered to them now.

Ralph Hasenhüttl’s team has been one of the better squads in creating chances this season, ranking in the top six in xG at 5.9 and scoring in all but one fixture.

When you combine the summer signing of Adam Armstrong (Blackburn) with forward Che Adams and midfielder James Ward-Prowse, there is plenty of attacking talent for Southampton to make up for the loss of last season’s leading scorer Danny Ings.

Goalkeeper Alex McCarthy has also been solid in goal for the Saints, boasting a top-10 mark in post-shot expected goals minus goals allowed per 90 minutes at +0.16.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

With City being too heavy of a favorite to back, there’s one question you have to ask yourself if you are betting this game: Do you think Southampton will score?

I’m going to take my chances that they do, which leads me to the prop market to play the Both Teams to Score & a Man City win, which I bet at +170 and is currently listed at +150.

The Saints have scored in both away fixtures this season, and they do have a history of scoring against City. In the last 12 matches against Guardiola’s side, Southampton has found the back of the net in all but three of those games.

Man City’s shutout records since the arrival of Dias last season are well documented, but they have benefited this season by playing squads that rank in the bottom half of the league in xG.

You have to get creative if you want to back Man City, and this bet helps us avoid betting against them or against a plucky Southampton side who has a knack for picking up draws this year.

There could be value on the total of O3.5 goals at +100, but I feel that is right about where the line should be in this game.

Pick: Both Teams to Score & Man City to Win (+150)

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