Marseille vs. Sporting Lisbon Champions League Betting Preview (Tuesday, October 4)

Marseille vs. Sporting Lisbon Odds

Editor's Note: This game was delayed by 15 minutes due to Sporting's bus arriving late.

Kicking off the Champions League slate, Olympique de Marseille welcome Sporting CP on Tuesday for Matchday 3 in Group D.

The French side has really struggled in the competition, losing both matches and failing to score a goal against Tottenham Hotspur and Eintracht Frankfurt.

Meanwhile, the Portuguese club has a perfect start to go along with a pair of shutouts to come into the week at the top of the group.

If the hosts have any hope of advancing to the knockout rounds, they desperately need a result in this game, but Sporting have proven to be a difficult team to beat in the UCL.

Marseille

While things haven’t gone to plan in the European tournament, Marseille are undefeated through the first nine games in Ligue 1, trailing only Paris Saint-Germain on points.

The big question is whether this form will ever translate over into the Champions League, with the biggest improvements needing to come offensively.

In the first two fixtures, Marseille only averaged 0.55 expected goals per 90 minutes, according to fbref.com, which ranks in the bottom 5 of the UCL.

The French team is also toward the bottom of the Champions League in shots per game (8.50) and shots on target per match (two).

Sporting Lisbon

Sporting is on track to advance to the Round of 16 for the second straight UCL campaign, following the victories in the first two matches.

The Portuguese giant has been impressive defensively, picking up two clean sheets and allowing just 2.1 expected goals in the victories.

You do have to wonder if there is some regression coming, especially after posting a negative xGDiff so far in the competition.

Attacker Pedro Gonçalves leads the team with five goals and assists in all competitions, followed by English striker Marcus Edwards with four goals.

Betting Analysis & Pick

The bookmakers at FanDuel have the home team as the favorite at +120 odds on the moneyline. However, my favorite play for this match involves the total, which I see falling under 2.5 goals at -112 odds.

I mentioned how good Sporting have been defensively, but this is also a side that has overperformed offensively by scoring five goals on only two expected. This is not something that I believe will continue.

Meanwhile, I don’t think Marseille will be the team that can take advantage of this regression, with the French side only creating a pair of big scoring chances in the UCL. This could get even tougher if the visitors just sit behind the ball and park the bus.

When you add it all up, I think this is a great spot to back a low-scoring match.

The Pick: Total Under 2.5 Goals (-112)