Portland vs. Orlando City Odds & Pick (Tuesday, August 11): Back Timbers to Win MLS is Back Championship

Credit:

Diego Diaz/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Timbers midfielder Diego Valeri and Orlando City defender Will Johnson.

  • Jeremy Pond previews the MLS is Back Championship with betting odds, picks, and predictions for Tuesday's match between the Portland Timbers and Orlando City SC.
  • Read on for Pond's comprehensive analysis, including why he's backing Portland to take home the championship trophy.

Portland Timbers vs. Orlando City SC Odds

Portland Timbers odds +170 [BET NOW]
Orlando City SC odds +140 [BET NOW]
Draw +255 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 2.5 (-150o/+166u) [BET NOW]
Time Tuesday, 8:30 p.m. ET
TV ESPN/ESPNDP

Odds as of Monday at 5:00 p.m. ET and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.


Editors Note: As of Monday at 5:00 p.m. ET, PointsBet lists the match total at 3.5 (+170o/-230u).

After close to 50 matches in nearly a five-week stretch, Major League Soccer is ready to crown a champion at its midsummer showcase.

The MLS is Back tournament reassumes the spotlight on Tuesday when Portland battles Orlando City in the grand finale.

It has been a dream run to the title match for both clubs, each of whom started the competition as huge long shots to capture the hardware. Portland and Orlando City both closed at 28-1 odds to win it all, so those folks who backed either side (or both for that matter) are a victory away from being handsomely rewarded.

Prior to the start of the showcase, I recommended Portland as one of two marquee dark horses, and the Timbers have lived up to the hype the entire way. Portland enters this match fresh off of a thrilling 2-1 win against Philadelphia in the semifinal round. The Timbers now hope that they can produce a little more magic in the championship match.

On the other side, Orlando City has been just as stellar during its drive to the championship match. The Lions upset tournament-favorite Los Angeles Football Club in the quarterfinal round. Then Orlando City delivered an impressive 3-1 victory against Minnesota United in its semifinal match. Orlando City has basically been playing on “home” turf throughout the competition, and it has really blossomed as a club in the process.

Matchup Analysis

According to the data at FiveThirtyEight, Orlando City and Portland are flat-even in its final Soccer Power Index numbers. Both clubs come in at 39.2 points in the overall SPI numbers, with the Lions holding a slight edge to capture the crown (51% vs. 49%) against the Timbers.

The sides were just as close in goals data entering tournament as well. Portland came into the competition with 1.46 expected goals (xG) per game and 1.51 expected goals against for a -0.05 xGD/game. Those Timbers’ metrics bested Orlando City’s (1.21 xGF/1.30 xGA for -0.09 xGD/match) by the slimmest of margins.


Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.


Betting Analysis & Picks

If you have sizable plays on either club’s tournament futures, I recommend hedging in this position. These franchises could not be more evenly matched, and it isn’t worth risking losing it all if you only have one of these clubs alive.

As for the best handicapping angles in this contest, I am backing both teams to score as my top play. Portland and Orlando City have each done enough on the defensive side of the pitch to reach this point. But, they have also combined for only one clean sheet through 12 matches thus far.

When it comes to a side, I am rolling with Portland to finish the deal. I hedged with Orlando City to protect my futures wager, but I truly believe the Western Conference powerhouse is the better team. Portland just has too much in its vaunted attack — led by Sebastian Blanco and Diego Valeri — to be denied the championship.

The Bets:

  • Both Teams To Score: Yes (-175)
  • Portland – Draw: No (-110)

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