Monday Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Everton vs. Manchester City (Dec. 28)
Dave Thompson/PA Images via Getty Images. Pictured: Manchester City star Kevin De Bruyne.
Editor’s Note: This afternoon’s match between Man City and Everton has been postponed due to positive COVID-19 tests at City.
Everton vs. Manchester City Odds
|Everton Odds||+540 [BET NOW]|
|Manchester City Odds||-215 [BET NOW]|
|Draw||+380 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||2.5 (-165/+133) [BET NOW]|
|Time||3 p.m. ET|
Everton looks to keep its place inside the Premier League’s top four Monday when it hosts Manchester City at Goodison Park.
After a poor spell of form during November, Everton is red hot at the moment. The Toffees have won their last four matches, including Saturday’s 1-0 victory over Sheffield United. They are currently sitting in second place, so a result over Manchester City will solidify their place inside the top four on the table.
After starting the season on the wrong foot, the Cityzens are making up ground. Manchester City is currently in fifth place, putting it one point outside the top four in the league. Its defense has stepped up the last six matches, keeping clean sheets in five of them.
However, Everton boasts one of the league’s best offenses, so this will be a challenge for Manchester City’s defense.
The Toffees have had a rollercoaster of a season. They were on top of the league after the first five matches, but lost four out of six November matches. However, Everton has returned to its winning form with victories over Chelsea, Leicester City, Sheffield United and Arsenal.
Most impressive was the fact they did not allow a non-penalty goal to their opponents in those wins.
The reason Everton is inside the top four is its ability to create a ton of quality chances, averaging 1.54 xGF per match. Dominic Calvert-Lewin has been on fire up front for the Toffees, scoring 11 goals in 15 appearances. He’s averaging a ridiculous 0.70 expected goals per 90 minutes, which is the second-highest scoring rate in the league.
Everton has been a tad shaky defensively this season, allowing 1.36 xG per match. That ranks the Toffees in the league’s bottom half. Yet, they’ve improved drastically over this winning streak, allowing just 1.09 xG per match. Manchester City will be one of the best offenses they’ve seen to date, but the Everton defense should be up to the task.
Much of the reason the Cityzens finished second in the league last year was because of how poor their form was on the road. That has carried over into this season, with Manchester City having won only three of its seven road games.
In their two biggest road tests this year against Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur, the Cityzens failed to even score a goal.
The most surprising part of Manchester City’s start is that its usually-prolific offense has been stymied. The Cityzens are averaging just 1.87 expected goals per match, which is well off their 2.69 xG/match average a season ago.
Manchester City’s attack has started to show signs of life lately, generating 10.69 xG in its last five league fixtures. However, 8.39 of those expected goals were against West Bromwich Albion, Newcastle United, and Fulham, who all in the bottom of the table at the moment.
Projections and Pick
With how good of form Everton is in at the moment, I think the club is undervalued in this match. Manchester City has been beating up on the bottom clubs, but has struggled versus teams ahead of them.
Since I only have Manchester City projected at minus-138, I am going to back the Toffees on spread of plus-1 at +112 odds.
Pick: Everton +1 (+112)