Napoli vs AC Milan Odds, Pick, Prediction | Champions League Quarterfinal Preview

Napoli vs AC Milan Odds, Pick, Prediction | Champions League Quarterfinal Preview article feature image

Cesare Purini/Mondadori Portfolio via Getty Images. Pictured: Head coach Luciano Spalletti of SSC Napoli

Napoli vs AC Milan Odds

Tues, Apr. 18
3 p.m. ET

Napoli Odds


AC Milan Odds

Over/Under2.5 (+100 / -120)
Both Teams to Score (Yes/No)(-115 / -105)
Odds via DraftKings. Get the latest soccer odds here.

Napoli will host AC Milan in the second leg of their Champions League series on Tuesday night at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona.

The Blue have a 22-point lead in the league over their Serie A rival despite drawing Hellas Verona 0-0 this past weekend. However, Napoli will be the ones chasing on Tuesday after their close-fought 1-0 loss in leg one.

AC Milan will fancy their chances to advance to the semis. They feel they have cracked the code of this Napoli team. The Rossoneri's victory in the reverse fixture last week was their second time defeating Napoli this month, with the first one coming in league play when they captured a 4-0 win.

Will first-time quarter-finalists Napoli be able to overcome their one-goal deficit, or will seven-time tournament winners AC Milan upset their Italian foe once more?

Here is our breakdown of the Napoli vs AC Milan odds, and my pick for the Champions League showdown on Tuesday.

Napoli Back to Full Strength

Napoli were one of the hottest teams in the world prior to this month. They won 12 of their first 15 games in all competitions to start the new year and were +28 in goal differential.

However, the Blues have won just one game out of their first four matches in all competitions this month, and despite the April showers they are finding themselves in a bit of a goal drought. They have scored just twice in those four outings, which is drastically lower than the 2.53 goals per match they averaged leading up to this month.

There is a clear reason these last four games have seen Napoli's offense drop off, though. Striker Victor Osimhen was absent with a thigh injury. However, Napoli manager Luciano Spalletti confirmed to the press that the Nigeria international will be fully fit for the second leg, returning his Champions League top-scoring side (tied with Man City at 25 goals) to full strength.

Osimhen has scored 21 goals in 24 matches this season in Serie A. His goal-scoring form isn't just happening in Italy, though, as he also has four goals in his five Champions League matches this season.

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AC Milan All-In on Champions League

AC Milan's chances at defending their Serie A title in Italy are all but over given Napoli's gigantic league lead, so their focus has solely shifted to advancing in the Champions League.

That was made clear this weekend when manager Stefano Piolo had seven of his regular starters on the bench in their 1-1 draw against Bologna on Saturday to allow them to be rested for Tuesday's match.

The extra rest will be crucial for Milan, as they will likely take a conservative approach and be ball-chasing for most of the game. It should be very similar to the tactics they used in their second leg against Tottenham in the round of 16, when they were in the exact situation they are currently in against Napoli.

Along with rest, history is also on Milan's side. They have advanced in 38-of-44 UEFA series after winning the first leg at home and they have won their last three matches in Naples.

Napoli vs AC Milan Pick

Despite history backing AC Milan in this spot, data is backing Napoli.

Piolo has stated that despite Osimhen returning, he will keep his team's strategy the same. However, even without Osimhem, Milan were the lesser side statistically in leg one. Napoli controlled possession and won the xG battle 1.34 to 1.13 with 16 shots to Milan's 12.

Now take that, add in home-field advantage and Osimhen's return to the Blues' attack and their xG and shot total should only increase. In the three Champions League games Osimhen has played in this season, he has scored in each and Napoli has averaged 3.67 goals.

That will surely be enough for them to get the win in 90 minutes on Tuesday. Back Napoli to get the win and for Osimhen to hit the target at least twice.

Pick: Napoli ML (-135) | Victor Osimhen Over 1.5 Shots on Target (+100)

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