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English Premier League Odds, Picks, Predictions: Newcastle vs. Bournemouth Betting Preview (Saturday, September 17)

English Premier League Odds, Picks, Predictions: Newcastle vs. Bournemouth Betting Preview (Saturday, September 17) article feature image
Credit:

Clive Brunskill/Getty Images. Pictured: Callum Wilson of Newcastle United.

  • Newcastle United hosts Bournemouth in Saturday’s Premier League showdown.
  • The Magpies are huge -225 moneyline home favorites and analyst Nicholas Hennion sees a way to find value on them in this matchup.
  • Check out below where he has landed with his top selection.

Newcastle vs. Bournemouth Odds

Newcastle Odds -225
Bournemouth Odds +625
Draw +333
Over/Under 2.5 (-130 / -110)
Day | Time Saturday | 10 a.m. ET
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Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

Seeking to put an end to its three-game winless streak, Newcastle United welcomes Bournemouth to St. James’ Stadium for its seventh match of the season.

In its most recent fixture, manager Eddie Howe’s side was on the short end of a 0-0 home draw against Crystal Palace. Meanwhile, Bournemouth produced a raucous 3-2 comeback road win against Nottingham Forest to earn its second win of the season.

Historically, Newcastle has dominated this head-to-head fixture. The Magpies have won two in a row against Bournemouth and are unbeaten in its last five encounters.

Newcastle

Newcastle has largely played low-event matches up until this point — its six matches have seen 13 combined goals — but the underlying metrics tell a different story.

Just in terms of total big scoring chances, Howe’s side enters this game having scored seven goals on 13 big scoring chances while conceding only six on 13 big chances as well. A big chunk of that underperformance can be attributed to Newcastle’s performance at home, where it has scored five goals on 10 big chances and conceded three goals against seven big chances.

Combine that with Newcastle’s expected goals performance recently — two goals on 5.5 expected in its last three matches — and Newcastle enters this match a positive offensive regression candidate.

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Bournemouth

The schedule for Bournemouth has proven absolutely brutal to open this new campaign, but it has still struggled immensely.

Entering this fixture, the Cherries have created a mere two big scoring chances in six Premier League fixtures, per fotmob.com. Even just in its three fixtures against Nottingham Forest, Wolves and Aston Villa, Bournemouth has a -1 big scoring chances differential and has created 0.67 big chances per 90 minutes.

Defensively, Bournemouth has seen improvement of late. Just in its last two fixtures against Wolves and Forest, it has allowed only three total big scoring chances and 3.41 expected goals.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

Although Bournemouth has shown signs of improvement of late, I’m all-in on Newcastle at home.

In three home fixtures against Nottingham Forest, Manchester City and Crystal Palace, the Magpies have never failed to generate more than 1.8 expected goals and have cleared 2.0 xG in both home matches against Forest and Palace.

Additionally, Newcastle is a positive regression candidate on those three matches offensively, scoring five goals on 6.5 expected, per fbref.com.

Even though it’s hard to draw definitive conclusions about Bournemouth away from home — two of its three road matches have come against Manchester City and Liverpool — the fact remains it won 3-2 against Forest in a game where it lost on expected goals.

Plus, Newcastle have yet another advantage over Bournemouth when it comes to its ability to create off set pieces. Currently, Newcastle sits second league-wide in total xG off dead-ball situations while Bournemouth ranks 14th in the corresponding defensive category.

For those reasons, lay the goals with Newcastle as it continues its strong run at home.

The Pick: Newcastle -1.5 (+125) 

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