Nottingham Forest vs Fulham Odds, Predictions, Picks | Premier League Match Preview
NurPhoto/Getty. Pictured: Gio Reyna.
Nottingham Forest vs Fulham Odds
| Nottingham Forest Odds | +150 |
| Fulham Odds | +180 |
| Draw | +240 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -125 / +100 |
Nottingham Forest enter match week 31 in the PL tied with Luton Town on points for 18th place, which leaves them firmly in the relegation battle regardless of potential pending financial fair play litigation. Fulham beat Nottingham Forest 5-0 in the reverse fixture of this matchup at Craven Cottage in December, which may have been the Cottagers' most dominant all-around performance of the entire Premier League season to date.
The Trees can leave no doubt about their future in the PL by earning enough points on the pitch to overcome any potential further sanctions by the league. Forest settled for a point at home against Crystal Palace on Saturday and the Trees now catch Fulham in a back to back road game spot after the Cottagers tied last place Sheffield United 3-3 in dramatic fashion at the weekend.
Read on for my Nottingham Forest vs Fulham prediction.
Nottingham Forest
The Trees will be without Taiwo Awoniyi for another month after his injury before the international break, which puts more pressure on Chris Wood to continue producing at his solid clip this season. Wood may only be getting 2.1 shots per match for this Forest side and an unsustainable 0.25 xG per shot, but the 32-year-old forward has scored 10 goals in 12.9 90s for the club and been crucial to make up for the lacking goal production around him.
Awoniyi has rarely been on the pitch this season, and Wood's hot run of big chances and good finishing has propelled Forest's otherwise poor attack. Since Nuno Espirito Santo took over as manager, the Trees have played 1,086 minutes of 11-on-11 soccer, which is just over 12 total matches. In that time period, Forest has produced 1.23 xG per match, which is only ahead of Burnley, Sheffield United, West Ham and Crystal Palace. To overcome this, they've also conceded just 1.29 xGA per 90 and improved by tightening up the defense. They have conceded the fourth fewest xG per match since Christmas.
Combine that with no longer running badly from a shot stopping and defensive variance perspective and there have been two total goals or fewer in six of Forest's last seven matches in all completions. The only exception was Forest's away trip to Villa. They were even able to hold down Liverpool's dynamic attack until the last kick of the game, deep into stoppage time, in a 1-0 defeat.
Fulham
The primary difference between Fulham and Nottingham Forest’s current position in the Premier League table is set piece defense variance. Forest have conceded 18 goals from set pieces, three more than every other team in the league. That has come from roughly 10.04 xGA, a combination of poor goalkeeper shot stopping and elite finishing from opponents in dead ball situations.
Fulham have actually conceded more chances from set pieces this year — 10.93 xGA — and yet the Cottagers have allowed just five total goals. Only Manchester City have allowed fewer. The Cottagers have enjoyed a strong recent run of form in the last month with the emergence of Rodrigo Muniz to help solve their striker problems, but they are overvalued in the market in this back to back short rest road spot following a chaotic 3-3 draw at Sheffield United.
The Cottagers have improved their attacking output by being more efficient in the final third. Fulham's biggest issue was that they could get the ball to the final third, but they were the league's least efficient team at turning those touches into box entries and then eventually shots. Fulham still rank just 14th in xG per match in the PL, but they've improved from 20th to 17th in efficiency of turning final third touches into box touches. Against an extremely passive defense like Nottingham Forest though, it will really be a challenge for Fulham unless the crosses are really on point.
Fulham rely more on crossing than almost every other team, and Forest are an above-average defense at preventing crosses into the penalty area.
Nottingham Forest vs Fulham
Prediction
Nottingham Forest are playing their second consecutive match at home, while this is a second consecutive away match for Fulham. Fulham’s numbers have improved over the course of the season as well, but Forest and Fulham have the exact same xG difference since 2024 began.
Forest have the better defense and Fulham have the better attack, but these two teams have comparable underlying numbers for three months now. Given that and the home field advantage for Forest, the Cottagers are undervalued as a near pick’em. I’d bet Forest draw no bet at -125 or better.
Pick: Nottingham Forest – Draw No Bet (-118, play to -125)
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