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Poland vs Argentina Odds, Pick, Prediction | 2022 World Cup Match Preview

Poland vs Argentina Odds, Pick, Prediction | 2022 World Cup Match Preview article feature image

Dean Mouhtaropoulos/Getty. Pictured: Lionel Messi.

  • Argentina and Poland square off on Wednesday at the World Cup.
  • Who has the edge in the all-important match?
  • Read on for Brett Pund's betting breakdown.

Poland vs. Argentina Odds

Wednesday, Nov. 30
2 p.m. ET
Poland Odds+700
Argentina Odds-223
Over/Under2.5 (+120 / -150)
Both Teams to Score (Yes/No)(+137 / -188)
Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute World Cup odds here.

Closing out World Cup action on Wednesday, Group C leader Poland takes on Argentina with both nations having a great chance to advance to the knockout rounds.

The European side tops the group after securing a draw in the opener against Mexico followed by a victory over Saudi Arabia.

Meanwhile, La Albiceleste rebounded from their surprising loss to the Saudis with a 2-0 win against Mexico, and the South American side needs a result in this one to make it out of the group.

Both places out of the group are up for grabs between all four teams in Group C, which could make this one of the more dramatic finishes of the group stages.

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Poland Control Their Future But Nothing is Certain

Poland control their own destiny in this group after being the only nation to secure four points through two matches, but this will be the hardest game for them.

Star striker Robert Lewandowski finally got his World Cup goal in the victory against Saudi Arabia, but the team as a whole has struggled to create solid scoring chances.

In that win, Poland did finish with 1.51 expected goals (xG) from open play. However, 0.53 of that came from a mistake by Saudi Arabia that handed Lewandowski the goal.

This is also the same side that only created 0.06 xG from open play in the opener, and the only big scoring chance came via the penalty.

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Argentina Can Return on Course After This Fixture

Coming into the competition, this was not the position that the No. 3 team in the world expected to find themselves in – likely needing a win to advance to the round of 16.

The surprises started in the first match against Saudi Arabia, where Argentina allowed a pair of second-half goals to lose 2-1. However, the CONMEBOL nation responded by blanking Mexico 2-0 in matchday two.

Underlying numbers for the victory were not good for manager Lionel Scaloni’s team, as they scored the two goals on 0.32 xG and created no big scoring chances, according to Things were not much better in the first game either, where la Albiceleste only generated 0.29 xG from open play.

Lionel Messi is always able to pull out the spectacular, and he will likely need to do so for his nation to advance in this tournament.

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Poland vs. Argentina Pick

Looking at the odds over at bet365, Argentina are listed as the heavy favorite on the moneyline at -223, while the total is set at 2.5. I can’t get behind either squad, but I do show value on the total.

So, my best bet is for the total to fall under 2.25 goals on the Asian Goal Line at -105.

I spoke about the offensive struggles that both nations have had so far in the competition, but they both do have strong defensive numbers to aid in a low-scoring affair.

For Poland, they have held opponents to an average of 0.63 xG from open play per 90 minutes, while Argentina have allowed even less at 0.01 xG in open play per game.

You should see a Polish team that is more than happy to sit deep and defend in numbers, with a draw seeing the side advance out of the group. Meanwhile, I haven’t seen anything from the South American team to show me that they will be able to break down a side like this.

The Pick: Under 2.25 Goals (-105)

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