Porto vs Inter Milan Preview, Odds, Pick | Champions League Betting Analysis

Porto vs Inter Milan Preview, Odds, Pick | Champions League Betting Analysis article feature image

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Porto vs Inter Milan Odds

Tues., Mar. 14
4 p.m. ET

Porto Odds


Inter Milan Odds

Over/Under2.5 (-105 / -125)
Both Teams to Score (Yes/No)(-130 / +100)
Odds via Caesars. Get the latest soccer odds here.

FC Porto will host Inter Milan in the second leg of their Champions League series on Tuesday night at the Estádio do Dragão.

Porto will be confident returning home for the second leg, as they are only down one goal on aggregate and they must feel they were better or just as good in leg one.

Inter, on the other hand, have been shaky on the road this season and are coming off a loss in their last outing, though they'll still fancy their chances given their goal advantage.

Will we see Porto give their fans a show and overcome their one-goal deficit, or will Inter defend their lead on the road and advance to the quarter-finals?

Here is my breakdown of the Porto vs Inter Milan odds and my pick for the Champions League showdown on Tuesday.

Porto Are Back Healthy

Though Porto will be without a mainstay starter in Otavio due to his red card in leg one, manager Sérgio Conceição will still have a strong roster at his disposal. 

Heading into the Milan leg, Porto had eight players questionable prior to the match. For Tuesday they will have no players on their injury report, and center back Fabio Cardoso earned his first minutes in over a month during their 3-2 win against Estoril on Friday. Cardoso's return allows Conceição to play his preferred defensive partnership of Pepe and Cardoso in the middle of defense.

On top of their improved fitness, Porto have been outstanding when playing in their home arena. They have won 17 of their 21 games across all competitions at home, losing just three times and drawing the other. Those three losses came when they were a man down due to a red card. 

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Inter Milan Struggle on the Road

Inter Milan are known for finishing the job. The Italian powerhouse has won four of their last seven elimination matches, and all of those four came in the second leg. 

However, aside from their all-important one-goal advantage, that trend is the only thing pointing in Inter's favor for Tuesday. Manager Simon Inzaghi's side has lost two of their three matches since the first meeting with Porto.

Both of those losses came on the road, indicating that Milan are far from overcoming their road woes this season. They have won just 38% of their away games and have conceded 24 away goals compared to just six at home. 

Their offensive play outside of Milan has been poor as well. They have 20 away goals versus 27 at home and have netted the ball just once in their last three away games — all losses.

Porto vs Inter Milan Pick

Porto will need to be on the front foot from the opening whistle if they are to overcome an Inter side that they have yet to score on in this series.

With the Dragon's recent form and health improvements, I expect them to accumulate multiple chances in front of the goal. Plus with Inter's road form and recent stumbles in front of goal, Inzaghi's side will struggle to increase their aggregate lead. Thus, all signs point to a Porto win on Tuesday. 

However, rather than playing the moneyline straight up, I will play it cautiously and wager on the draw no bet line with concerns that they are unable to break through an Inter defense that may very well try to park the bus for a full 90 minutes.

Pick: FC Porto — Draw No Bet (-115)

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