Porto vs Arsenal Odds, Predictions, Picks | Champions League Match Preview
Via Daniel Chesterton/Getty Images. Pictured: Bukayo Saka of Arsenal celebrates after scoring their third goal to make the score 0-3 during the Premier League match between Burnley FC and Arsenal FC at Turf Moor on February 17, 2024 in Burnley, England.
Porto vs Arsenal Odds
| Porto Odds | +450 |
| Arsenal Odds | -150 |
| Draw | +275 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 +100 / -125 |
Arsenal look to continue their great form when they travel to Portugal to take on Porto in the Round of 16.
Porto finished second in a pretty easy group and needed a result on the final day against Shakhtar to make it to the Round of 16. Their form in the Portuguese Primeira Liga has been pretty pedestrian as well, so going up against one of the best teams in the world at the moment is a bad scenario for Porto.
Arsenal are in amazing form right now after winning five straight Premier League matches while outscoring their opponents 21 to two in the process. The Gunners cruised to first place in their Champions League group and are set up to make a deep run in this competition.
Read on to see how I'm betting Porto vs Arsenal in my Champions League match preview.
Porto
This Porto team is not as talented as the teams we’ve seen in the past. Evanilson is their only real offensive threat, with a 0.47 xG per 90-minute scoring rate in the Portuguese Primeira Liga, but nobody else on the team is over 0.35. Even Mehdi Taremi is only getting 1.2 shots per 90 minutes this year and is completely out of form.
Something else is interesting with Porto – they’ve switched to a 4-2-3-1 the last six matches in Portugal to try and play more possession-dominant football while going away from their normal 4-4-2 that we’ve seen for years.
They will most likely play out of their 4-4-2, but Porto likes to play a high line out of their midblock to limit teams playing through the middle while pressing intensely, which is how they gave Barcelona problems. Good luck trying that against one of the best build-up teams in the world.
Even if you look through Porto's Champions League results, they started out really well before the form began to dip when they lost to Barcelona pretty handily. Then they allowed three goals and were torched repeatedly in transition by Shakhtar on the final day.
This the best team by a mile that Porto has faced this season as Arsenal do not have a weakness right now, so it's going to be a monumental task just to get a result in this first leg.
Arsenal
Arsenal have made a pretty big change tactically, and it has become incredibly difficult for opposing teams to prepare for them.
The last few matches they have been playing Trossard as a false nine, but the reality is that the entire Arsenal attacking structure is fluid. Oftentimes Martin Ødegaard, Kai Havertz or Leandro Trossard will drop deep in build up, which allows Arsenal to have numerical superiority as they move the ball through the first and second phases if teams do not choose to go man to man.
If opposing defenses go man to man, Trossard and Ødegaard will pull centerbacks or defensive midfielders out of position, which allows space for Gabriel Martinelli and Bukayo Saka to make runs at or behind the opposing back line.
No doubt Arteta is the best coach ever seen in football. The tactical level in this team is ridiculously high. SkySports haters were in major cope.
West Ham were forced to surrender. This is before any goal went in and 90% of the work you do to wear down a deep block. pic.twitter.com/HtLVmpP3jo
— Hale End Fan Account (@ddoublepivot) February 16, 2024
This is the third match since Arsenal has made this change, and they’ve scored a whopping 14 goals in those three matches, so it’s safe to say that teams are having a difficult time trying to figure out how to defend the Gunners.
Since this shift in strategy, nobody has been able to do anything against Arsenal. They completely shut down Liverpool, which is the best transition team in the world, by holding them to just 0.4 xG.
In their last five matches, the Gunners have held their opponents to a total of 1.7 Expected Goals. That is because William Saliba and Gabriel are elite at defending in transition, and with Ben White inverting alongside Declan Rice the past few matches, it has become really difficult for opposing teams to play through the middle of the pitch.
Porto vs Arsenal
Prediction
Porto has pulled off some upsets in past Champions League competitions, but this team is far less talented and in far worse form coming into the Round of 16 than they've been in years past.
If you look at the Portuguese Premeira Liga table right now, Sporting and Benfica are very clearly the first- and second-best teams, with Porto only having a +0.81 xGD per 90 minutes in the seventh-most difficult league in Europe by UEFA coefficients.
Arsenal is now the most diverse tactical team on the planet and are extremely difficult to prepare for, especially if you play passive out of possession — just ask Crystal Palace and West Ham. There is not a phase of the game that Arsenal is weak in right now, so it's time to continue to back the Gunners until the market prices them accordingly.
I have Arsenal projected at -188, so I like the value on them at -140.
Pick: Arsenal ML (-140 via Caesars)
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