Aston Villa vs. Wolves Odds, Pick & Prediction: Take Underdog in Saturday EPL Clash
Matthew Ashton – AMA/Getty Images. Pictured: Wolves standout Nelson Semedo.
- Aston Villa welcomes Wolves to Villa Park for Saturday's Premier League clash.
- Both sides have been in fine form of late, which has pushed them into the top half of the table.
- Brett Pund breaks down Aston Villa vs. Wolves below and explains why he likes Wolverhampton to get a result.
Aston Villa vs. Wolves Odds
|Aston Villa Odds||+125|
|Over/Under||2.5 (+110 / -130)|
|Day | Time||Saturday | 10 a.m. ET|
|How To Watch||NBCSN | fuboTV|
|Odds last updated at 8 a.m. ET and via DraftKings. Get live soccer odds here.|
Two teams in the top half of the Premier League form table meet at the weekend in a West Midlands Derby, with Wolves making the quick trip to Villa Park to take on Aston Villa on Saturday.
The Villans enter the game unbeaten at home in their last five league games dating back to last season and own wins over Everton and Manchester United this campaign.
The away side has also started to pick up victories, with wins in three of its last four Premier League fixtures over Newcastle, Southampton and Watford.
Looking at the history of this match, it all favors the traveling side, with Villa only securing one win in the last seven league games at Villa Park against Wolves, which sets up an exciting derby between two in-form clubs.
Aston Villa Utilizing Balanced Approach
If you were to ask Villa fans if they would take being 10th in the league after seven games, all of them would have signed up for that following the departure of Jack Grealish.
Eight different players have scored for the Villains this season, with summer signing Danny Ings leading the way with a pair of goals and assists.
Dean Smith will be hoping his team continues its strong play at home, where Villa is unbeaten with wins over Everton and Newcastle and a draw with Brentford.
The Villains boast a +0.4 expected goals difference at Villa Park, according to fbref.com, and have outscored their opponents 6-1 in the three home fixtures.
When you look at the advanced metrics for the overall season, Villa has gotten a bit lucky to have the 10 goals it has as it ranks in the bottom half of the table in shots per match (11.43), big scoring chances created (4) and expected goals (7.9) in the categories.
Frustrated Wolves Becoming New Brighton
Although they have seen a turn in form, Wolves have done so against teams who figure to be toward the bottom of the table at the end of the season.
Bruno Lage’s side is one of just eight teams in the Premier League season that has a positive expected goals difference at +1.4. The struggle in the young campaign has been goals.
Wolves only have five goals through seven games on 8.8 expected goals, but the xG, big chances created (13) and shots per 90 minutes (13.29) totals all give hope for that turning around.
Star striker Raúl Jiménez is who Wolves need to get going to help in the goals department, but keep an eye on the lineup announcement as he will be making the late trip back from international duty after scoring for Mexico in midweek.
Defensively, Wolves have been very solid so far this year, ranking towards the top of the league in shots allowed per game (9.57), big scoring chances allowed (4) and xG allowed (7.4).
Betting Analysis & Pick
The odds are favoring a victory for the home side in this contest, with Villa slated as +125 favorites at DraftKings and a total of 2.5 shaded to the under at -130.
For my best bet, I’ll be targeting the spread and taking the away team on the Asian handicap of +0.25 at -105.
Wolves are the better team across the board in the advanced stats when you compare the two teams side by side, and Villa are due some regression after picking up some wins in matches that maybe it shouldn’t have.
When you add that with the history between the clubs, I believe all of the value in this match is with Wolves, and I wouldn’t be against the idea of sprinkling some on the moneyline (+240) in this game too.
You definitely want to make sure Jiménez is starting before firing the bet, but with him not starting for Mexico on Wednesday, all signs point to him leading the line for a good result for Wolves.
Pick: Wolves +0.25 (-105)