Southampton vs. Burnley Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions (Sunday, April 4)

Southampton vs. Burnley Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions (Sunday, April 4) article feature image

Southampton vs. Burnley Odds

Southampton Odds +105
Burnley Odds +290
Draw +230
Over/Under 2.5 (+120/-148) 
Day | Time Sunday | 7 a.m. ET
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Odds as of Saturday afternoon via DraftKings.

The first of four Premier League matches Sunday features 14th-place Southampton hosting 15th-place Burnley.

With nine games remaining this season, both clubs have 33 points and find themselves seven points ahead of 18th-place Fulham, which currently resides in the final relegation spot.

Here’s a closer look at these clubs, followed by my betting angle on the match.

Southampton

It’s extremely unlikely Southampton will be relegated this season, with just a one-percent chance of that happening, according to FiveThirtyEight. However, it’s been a very disappointing season nonetheless for the club.

The Saints have been in a nosedive since mid-January, with 10 defeats, a draw and just one win in their past 12 league matches. And that victory was over last-place Sheffield United.

Southampton has been particularly poor defensively, conceding 51 goals in 29 matches. Only 19th-place West Bromwich Albion conceded more goals (57) entering the weekend’s fixtures.

In terms of underlying numbers, they’re about where they should be. Southampton is 15th in the league in expected-goal differential at -9.1 xGDiff, according to FBRef.com.

On the bright side, Southampton has advanced to the semifinal round of the FA Cup. The Saints did so by earning a 3-0 win over Bournemouth in a March 20 quarterfinal match. Keep in mind, though, that victory came against a second-division side.

Burnley

Burnley is only slightly more likely to be relegated than Southampton, sitting with a 3-percent chance, according to FiveThirtyEight. Fortunately for the Clarets, their form has been much better as of late.

They’re coming off a 2-1 win at Everton in their most recent match, although that was almost a month ago on March 13. Burnley has lost only one of its past seven league games — a stretch that includes a 3-0 win over Crystal Palace; draws against Fulham (1-1), West Bromwich Albion (0-0) and Leicester City (1-1) and Arsenal (1-1);  and, a 4-0 blowout defeat against Tottenham Hotspur.

Burnley has an identical goal difference to Southampton, sitting at -15 on the season, but it’s scored 14 fewer goals (22) and conceded 14 fewer (37) overall.

In terms of the underlying numbers. Burnley is 17th in the league in xGDiff at -15.9 in the advanced metric.

Betting Analysis & Pick

Danny Ings, who is Southampton’s leading scorer this season with eight goals, could return from injury against Burnley. However, James Ward-Prowse (seven goals) might be out after picking up a knock on international duty with England.

Bottom line, these teams look pretty even. A point would suit both as they try to secure their respective safety, and Burnley has played a bunch of draws lately.

Here’s hoping for another one at on Southampton’s home soil.

Pick: Draw (+230)

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