Sunday Premier League Odds, Picks, Prediction: Liverpool vs. Brentford EPL Betting Preview
Visionhaus/Getty Images. Pictured: Jurgen Klopp.
- Powerful Liverpool hosts Brentford in Sunday’s Premier League showdown at Anfield.
- The Reds are massive -350 favorites, but will be missing key players like Mohamed Salah or Sadio Mané.
- Brett Pund takes a deep look at this EPL matchup below and explains where he’s found value on the game total.
Liverpool vs. Brentford Odds
|Over/Under||2.5 (-170 / +140)|
|Day | Time||Sunday | 9 a.m. ET|
|How To Watch||USA Network | fuboTV|
|Odds updated Sunday morning via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.|
Liverpool look to keep its Premier League title hopes alive Sunday when it hosts Brentford at Anfield.
The Reds, who entered the weekend in third with 42 points, will have to do so without the attacking duo of Mohamed Salah and Sadio Mané, both of whom are representing their countries at the Africa Cup of Nations.
Meanwhile, the Bees are enjoying being comfortably above the relegation zone in their return to the English top flight, sitting 13th with 23 points.
The first fixture between these sides was a 3-3 thriller at the Brentford Community Stadium, but I’m expecting a much different match this time around.
Liverpool’s Depth Will Be Tested
While Liverpool has had a solid season, this stretch of games without two of its top goalscorers will be a true measure of squad depth.
The first test for manager Jürgen Klopp’s side came in the midweek Carabao Cup semifinal against Arsenal, where the Reds failed to score against the 10-men Gunners and only registered one shot on target.
The absence of Salah and Mané was very evident in the game, and it’s likely going to continue until the pair comes back. On the season, the duo has had a hand in 34 of Liverpool’s 52 league goals (65%) and has combined to average 1.17 expected goals per match, according to fbref.com.
One player Klopp will need to continue to perform is Portuguese attacker Diogo Jota, who has 10 league goals this season.
Brentford Enjoying Strong EPL Debut
While Brentford fans are likely satisfied with its position in the league table, the advanced metrics indicate that the Bees should actually be ranked even higher.
The Bees own the seventh-best expected goal difference in the English top flight at -0.5, which has mainly been due to the strong defensive numbers. Brentford ranks in the fifth in shots allowed per match (12.15) and seventh non-penalty xGA per 90 minutes (1.14) this season.
One key contributor for the Bees has been backup keeper Álvaro Fernández, who since taking over for the injured David Raya has averaged a positive post-shot expected goals minus goals allowed mark at +0.14 per match.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Even with the missing goalscorers, DraftKings still has Liverpool as the heavy favorite at -350 on the moneyline to go with a total posted at three goals.
I can’t back either team, but I do think there’s solid value to play the total staying under three goals at -120 odds via the Asian Handicap and will make it my best bet.
We talked about how many goals the Reds would be missing without the dynamic duo, and I wouldn’t expect Brentford to pick up the slack in this game. Over their last five league matches, the Bees have averaged just 0.88 expected goals. Meanwhile, the combined xG average in those same games was just 1.9 goals.
This sputtering attack will be going up against a Liverpool defense that ranks third in non-penalty xG allowed per 90 minutes (1.01) and second in opponent’s shots per match (8.75) this season.
Arsenal showed Brentford the path to getting a result in this game, which was to drop deep, put everyone behind the ball and try to hit the Reds on the counter.
Without Salah, Mané and Thiago to create chances, I’m expecting the Bees to park the bus in this one, which should give us a great shot at this under on the total.
Pick: Total Under 3 Goals (-120)
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