Saturday Premier League Odds, Picks & Prediction: Newcastle United vs. Nottingham Forest Betting Preview

Newcastle vs. Forest Odds

Newcastle United, which begins its first full season under manager Eddie Howe, welcomes newly promoted Nottingham Forest to St. James' Park for Saturday's Premier League showdown.

After a disastrous start to last year's campaign, the Magpies used a strong second half (and a bunch of cash) to finish 11th in the table. Entering this season, oddsmakers project Newcastle as the seventh-best team based on futures pricing.

As for Nottingham Forest, it earned promotion through the Championship playoff after finishing fourth in last year's table in England's second division.

Newcastle United

From Jan. 15 onward, the Magpies produced an incredible run of results for a mid-table side.

In its final 19 matches, Newcastle dropped points just seven times and only lost five games outright. In its first 19 contests, the side dropped all three points 10 times. In those fixtures, the Magpies generated 1.24 xG per 90 minutes, which was up from a season-long average of 1.06, per fbref.com.

Newcastle's defense also improved, holding all but three opponents — Liverpool, Tottenham and Manchester City — under 1.5 expected goals.

Most impressively, Newcastle finished the season 7-1-1 (W-L-D) at home and won all but one match (Liverpool) on xG as well.

By The Numbers

• 38 — Points won by Newcastle in 2022 domestic matches.
• 7 & 1 — Clean sheets from the Magpies in 2022 vs. clean sheets in the first half of the campaign.

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Nottingham Forest

By virtually all measures, Nottingham Forest was an average Championship side last season.

The Reds finished the year seventh in xG, 10th in big scoring chances and eighth in xGA, per fotmob.com. Additionally, talisman Brennan Johnson drastically over-performed his underlying metrics, combining for 26 goals plus assists on just a little more than 20 xG+A during the Championship campaign.

In good news, two of manager Steve Cooper's top-four scorers underperformed on their xG metrics. Additionally, Forest made a number of offseason signings, most notably goalkeeper Dean Henderson — on loan from Manchester United — and striker Taiwo Awoniyi, which it acquired from German outfit Union Berlin.

That said, the Reds' form to close out last season leaves a lot to be desired. In Nottingham's final six matches, it never won a single match. Across its final 10 regular-season Championship fixtures, it won only two of them.

By The Numbers

• 1 — Nottingham Forest finished tied for first in penalties awarded last season.
• -16.3 — Goals conceded minus xG for the Reds in the Championship.

Betting Analysis & Pick

Initially I was skeptical of Newcastle in this spot, but some of the prices have forced me to reconsider.

As mentioned earlier, Howe's squad finished the season 7-1-1 (W-L-D) on home soil. Just in the final seven contests against non-top seven sides, the Magpies were 6-0-1 (W-L-D) and created almost 1.4 xG per 90 minutes. That came while simultaneously conceding only four goals on five xGA overall.

All of that is to say I think Newcastle laying a goal at +120 is a bit of a steal. Although Forest has made a lot of summer additions, it failed to address a defense that — as noted earlier — drastically over-performed last season in the Championship.

For those reasons, I'll back Newcastle giving -1 on the spread line at +100 odds or better and would play its moneyline at -145 or better as well.

The Pick: Newcastle -1 (+120)