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Premier League Odds, Picks, Predictions, Best Bets: Manchester City vs. Brighton & Hove Albion EPL Betting Preview (April 20)

Premier League Odds, Picks, Predictions, Best Bets: Manchester City vs. Brighton & Hove Albion EPL Betting Preview (April 20) article feature image
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Michael Regan/Pool/AFP via Getty Images. Pictured: Manchester City goalkeeper Ederson.

Man City vs. Brighton Odds

Man City Odds -550
Brighton Odds +1600
Draw +600
Over/Under 2.5 (-175 / +125)
Day | Time Wednesday | 3 p.m. ET
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Odds updated via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

Manchester City welcomes Brighton & Hove Albion to Etihad Stadium for their midweek Premier League clash on Wednesday, with the host looking to match the result of its title-contending counterpart.

Liverpool’s 4-0 blowout win over Manchester United means City is currently two points behind its rival in second place, while Brighton doesn’t have anything of serious note to play for as the season winds down.

The Cityzens are coming off an FA Cup loss to the Reds this past weekend. As for the Seagulls, they’ve recently turned around their form and won two on the bounce.

Do the ‘Gulls have any hope of gutting out a result?

Man City Needing Rare Dose of Rejuvenation

It’s not often that Manchester City needs to up its level, but the side heads into this one after a draw against Atlético Madrid and that loss against Liverpool. Of course, the tie against Atlético essentially served as a victory, as City was able to progress to the Champions League semifinals, but the point remains.

In those two games, City accrued 2.9 expected goals, while conceding 2.72 xG in the process. It’s extremely nit-picky to say that those weren’t good performances, especially considering the first came in a difficult environment and the second featured a positive xG differential. However, that’s where we are if you want to criticize City these days.

Generally, big moments of indecision and lack of focus cost the Cityzens, and with a full 11 likely back in action in this meeting, manager Pep Guardiola will be confident his team will be sharper against Brighton.

Any dropped point could be a killer in the race for the title, so City will need that sharpness in each and every game.

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Brighton Picking Up Momentum Down Stretch

As the Seagulls rode a seven-game winless streak into its fixture with Arsenal, it appeared they were content on heading into its next campaign without much of a boost at the end of the season.

However, Brighton has changed its form substantially since that run, and it looks like the squad may indeed roll into the new season with some things to write home about.

Wins against Arsenal and Tottenham have given the Seagulls a bit of a jump in their step, and a result against the league favorites would be the best showing of all by a wide margin.

There’s absolutely zero pressure on Brighton and has nothing to lose, so it’s possible it comes into this fixture with a loose feel at the bare minimum and that can present a problem for City if it’s not careful.


BJ Cunningham’s EPL Projections


Betting Analysis & Pick

It’s tough to see a real edge against the spread or on the three-way moneyline with this contest, as City deserves its considerable favorite status. However, Brighton is capable of competing to an extent.

The Cityzens maintain a 1.8 xG/game differential at home, while the Seagulls sit at -0.1 on the road. So, alternative spread of -1.5 goals priced at -155 feels appropriate, but more value might be located on the total.

City’s past five EPL games have stayed under 3.5 xG and the same can be said for Brighton’s past 22 league games. Of course, the 23rd game was a 4-1 demolition at the hands of City, but generally this is a defensively sound squad.

Further, three of the Cityzens’ last five league games have stayed under 2.5 goals, while four of five of the Seagulls’ PL matches have as well.

I’ll back that trend to continue at plus money.

Pick: Total Under 2.5 Goals (+125)

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