Wolves vs. Brighton & Hove Albion Odds, Picks, Predictions: Back Seagulls to Secure Road Result (April 30)

Wolves vs. Brighton & Hove Albion Odds, Picks, Predictions: Back Seagulls to Secure Road Result (April 30) article feature image

Glyn Kirk/Getty. Pictured: Brighton & Hove Albion players celebrate a goal.

  • Wolverhampton welcomes Brighton to Molineux Stadium for Saturday's Premier League clash.
  • Wolves are slight favorites in this meeting, but analyst Avery Zimmerman has found betting value on the Seagulls.
  • Check out below why he's backing Brighton to get a road result.

Wolves vs. Brighton Odds

Wolves Odds+170
Brighton Odds+180
Over/Under2.5 (+130 / -185) 
Day | TimeSaturday | 10 a.m. ET
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Odds updated via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

Wolverhampton welcomes Brighton & Hove Albion to Molineux Stadium for Saturday's Premier League clash, with the host side seeking a place in a European competition next season as this year's campaign winds down.

For the Seagulls, there isn't too much to play for as has been the case for them for the past couple of months, but the visitors have recently reversed their form and played with more intensity over the past few weeks.

So, where does the value lie in this mid-table bout? Let's dive into it.

Wolves Looking for Big Achievement

Qualifying for the UEFA Conference League or Europa League might not seem like a big feat, but for a club like Wolverhampton, making it into an intra-continental competition would be a phenomenal outcome.

As it stands, Wolves is the eighth-placed team in the EPL with 49 points, but they have a game in hand on seventh-place West Ham United, which has 52 points. Go a step higher and you have Manchester United with 55 points, but the host has two games in hand on the Red Devils.

If Wolves jumps West Ham and reaches seventh, that would earn the club a spot in the Conference League. However, if Wolves has a major end to the season and reaches sixth place that would qualify for a Europa League group-stage spot.

The financial fallout from a Europa League position would be crucial for Wolves, and a Conference League spot would be more than welcome as well.

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Brighton Building Momentum to Next Season

As the Premier League's 11th-place side casually rolls to the end of the season, it would have been easy to allow its form to remain poor.

However, manager Graham Potter's squad has made the effort to not let that happen and the outcome has been good results and a positive atmosphere to ride into the next year.

Brighton's last five games have included two wins against top-five sides, two draws and a respectable performance against Manchester City, though it came in a 3-0 loss.

Just two of those performances saw Brighton have a negative expected-goal differential as well, so it's no fluke that it has seen a bump in form.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

Though Wolves has put itself in position to make a run at a European position, recent form hasn't done much to help out. Wolverhampton has lost three of its last four games against bottom half sides, and it has had negative xG differentials in each of those four contests.

On the other hand, Brighton has found some consistent form and is a solid away side. The Seagulls are seventh in the EPL in away matches, losing just four of their 17 games.

Brighton's -0.19 xG differential/game on the road is just -.07 xG worse than Wolves' -0.12 number on home soil, so I'll take my chances with a rejuvenated visiting side to hurt Wolverhampton's European hopes even further.

Pick: Brighton — Draw No Bet (-105)

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