Chelsea vs. Burnley EPL Betting Odds, Prediction, Preview: Back Blues in Blowout

Chelsea vs. Burnley EPL Betting Odds, Prediction, Preview: Back Blues in Blowout article feature image
Credit:

lIan MacNicol/Getty Images. Pictured: Reece James (left) and Ben Chilwell.

  • Chelsea are becoming a bigger and bigger favorite against Burnley at DraftKings, moving from -350 to -425 on the three-way moneyline over the last day.
  • The Blues are the superior side and should roll, but what's the best way to play them as such a big favorite?
  • Brett Pund breaks down Chelsea vs. Burnley below.

Chelsea vs. Burnley Odds

Chelsea Odds -425
Burnley Odds +1300
Draw +550
Over/Under 2.5 (-145/ +120)
Day | Time Saturday | 11 a.m. ET
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Odds via DraftKings, updated at 8 a.m. ET on Saturday morning. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Chelsea will be looking to keep its place atop the Premier League table Saturday when it welcomes Burnley to Stamford Bridge for their matchup.

The Blues have only dropped points in two matches this season to enter the weekend with 25 points, while the Clarets picked up their first win of the campaign last week against Brentford.

When you look at the history of this fixture, it’s also been dominated by the London club, winning 10 of 14 league matches and only losing one game.

Will this continue over the weekend or can the visitors spring a surprise?

Chelsea Thriving Atop Premier League

As you would expect for the team at the top of the EPL table, there’s plenty of positives to write about this Chelsea team.

Thomas Tuchel’s side ranks in the top three of the league in many different attacking categories, including goals scored (26), expected goals (17.2) and goals per shot (0.16), according to fbref.com.

There have been 15 different players score a goal in the league this season for the Blues, with the surprising leader being right wingback Reece James with four, as well as two assists.

The quality also extends to the defensive metrics, where Chelsea has surrendered the least amount of goals in the EPL (three) on 10.5 expected goals allowed and eight big chances conceded.

Goalkeeper Edouard Mendy has arguably been Tuchel’s most consistent player, with Arsenal’s Aaron Ramsdale (+0.31) the only other net minder with a better post-shot xG minus goals allowed per match tally (+0.27) thus far.

Burnley Struggling Away From Turf Moor

There isn’t as much to write about for the visitors, where Burnley enters the weekend in the relegation zone with four draws and just one victory, which came last weekend against Brentford.

The Clarets rank towards the bottom of the EPL table in goals scored (10) and expected goals difference (-4.1), and they haven’t traveled well away from Turf Moor this season.

In games away from home, only Norwich (one) has fewer points than Sean Dyche’s squad (two), and Burnley has given up 11 goals in five away matches.

Summer signing Maxwel Cornet has been on solid form over the last few matches, scoring three in his last three to lead the team with four for the season.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

The reigning Champions League champion is the expected favorite at DraftKings, where Chelsea is -390 on the moneyline as of this writing.

There are multiple ways to back the Blues in this one, so instead of providing a best bet for the match, I’ll give you two plays. I will back the hosts on the Asian Handicap of -1.5 to win by multiple goals at -125 and Win to Nil at -115 odds

The primary analysis I can provide is showing how both teams have done against similar competition. When you look at how Burnley did against Manchester City and Liverpool earlier this season, the Clarets failed to score against both and lost by multiple goals.

If you then look at how Chelsea has in fixtures versus Norwich City, Newcastle United, Crystal Palace, Aston Villa and Southampton, only one of those teams scored against the Blues, but the league leaders were still able to win by multiple scores in that game.

Chelsea is likely due some regression at some point, but it should also start being favored in contests like this by at least two goals.

I’m going to keep backing the Blues with these two bets against teams at the bottom of the table until I’m proven wrong.

Pick: Chelsea -1.5 (-125) | Chelsea Win to Nil (-115)

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