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Leeds vs. Brentford Premier League Odds, Picks, Preview: Back Peacocks Against Bees in EPL Match

Leeds vs. Brentford Premier League Odds, Picks, Preview: Back Peacocks Against Bees in EPL Match article feature image
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Robbie Jay Barratt – AMA/Getty Images. Pictured: Raphinha.

  • Leeds United welcomes Brentford to Elland Road for Sunday’s Premier League matchup.
  • Manager Marcelo Bielsa and the host Peacocks are overdue for a positive result, which could happen against the Bees.
  • Avery Zimmerman breaks down the meeting below and details why he’s backing Leeds in this contest.

Leeds vs. Brentford Odds

Leeds Odds -110
Brentford Odds +310
Draw +265
Over/Under 2.5 (-110 / -110)
Day | Time Sunday | 9 a.m. ET
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Leeds United plays host to Brentford in a Sunday morning Premier League battle.

The Peacocks picked up their first win since the end of October on Tuesday, beating Crystal Palace at home. They’ll have another chance to get a home result on Sunday when a struggling Brentford team comes to town.

Though the Bees picked up their first win in seven Premier League games last weekend against Everton, they were thoroughly dominated by Tottenham on Thursday in a 2-0 defeat.

Leeds will have two extra days of rest coming into the game given when each team’s midweek game was played, but will it result in three points going the Peacocks’ way?

Leeds Not Performing to Capabilities

The Peacocks continually amass chances on the attacking end in the Premier League. The problem is, they also concede numerous chances on a weekly basis.

While the 13 goals and 20 goals conceded from Leeds doesn’t tell the full story, the advanced metrics do. Unsurprisingly, Leeds is one of the worst finishing teams in the league, converting on just five percent of their shots on goal. For reference, the best team in the league is Liverpool with an 11.7 percent conversion rate and 10th is Everton with an eight percent conversion rate.

Leeds’ opponents haven’t been as unlucky on the finishing, and it’s cost the Peacocks, who are conceding the fifth-most xGA in the Premier League. As a result, Leeds hasn’t been able to find results.

The finishing woes of the Peacocks will be aided by the return of Patrick Bamford, who has been out due to injury for months. Luke Ayling will also return to the picture for Leeds.

Brentford Struggling for Consistency

Like Leeds, Brentford is another team that has struggled to get results when playing better than its opponent.

Against Norwich, the Bees generated 2.76 xG while conceding 1.16 and they lost 2-1. They generated more xG against Leicester before falling 2-1. Recently, Brentford hasn’t been able to perform at the same level, let alone get results.

In Brentford’s recent 2-0 loss to Tottenham, the Bees conceded 2.07 xG while only generating 0.23. It’s a worrying sign for a team that opened the season with serious promise and excitement.

Brentford needs to start getting results or it will be in real danger of getting itself into a relegation battle. The Bees currently sit in 12th place, six points out of the relegation zone, but for a team that has Manchester City, Liverpool and Manchester United in three of its seven following games, these types of fixtures are crucial.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

Leeds generates chances at an incredible rate at home (1.77 xG/game), but it also concedes chances at a similar rate (1.5 xGA/game). Brentford isn’t one of the better attacking sides in the league on the road (0.99 xG/game), but it is also a solid defensive side on the road (1.5 xGA/game).

With that being considered, I believe that the value lies with a team that finally found its footing and is returning its best striker. That doesn’t even include the additional two days of rest that Leeds has from its midweek game.

Brentford simply isn’t playing like a side that can go on the road and put itself in a good position to take the initiative. Go with Leeds to get the job done.

Pick: Leeds ML (-110)

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