Chelsea-Newcastle United Odds, Betting Pick: Back Blues to Dominate

Chelsea-Newcastle United Odds, Betting Pick: Back Blues to Dominate article feature image
Credit:

Darren Walsh/Chelsea FC via Getty Images. Pictured: Chelsea star Romelu Lukaku, left, celebrates a goal with teammate Kai Havertz.

  • Chelsea makes a visit to Tyneside for Saturday's Premiwer League meeting with Newcastle United.
  • The Blues are in first place in the English top flight, while the Magpies have played their way into the relegation zone.
  • Brett Pund breaks down the game below and details why he thinks Chelsea will cruise to the road triumph.

Newcastle vs. Chelsea Odds

Newcastle Odds +800
Chelsea Odds -270
Draw +400
Over/Under 2.5 (-150 / +120)
Day | Time Saturday | 10 a.m. ET
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Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Teams moving in opposite directions meet Saturday when Newcastle United welcomes Chelsea to St James’ Park for their Premier League showdown.

The visitors enter the game as the league leaders via seven wins through nine matches. In contrast, the Magpies are still searching for their first win of the campaign as they sit in 19th place and planted in the relegation zone.

After the firing of previous manager Steve Bruce, the next Newcastle manager could be in attendance for this match, which could push the home players to show out for their next boss.

It might take a big boost like that for the Magpies, as the Blues have won five of the last six league meetings between these squads.

Fresh Newcastle Ownership Creating Chatter

While our focus will be on the field for this match, most of the chatter surrounding Newcastle has come off of it with the new ownership group of the Saudi Public Investment Fund taking over the club, which would make it the richest club in the world.

Any player who is anybody across Europe has been rumored to join the club in upcoming transfer windows, but if results don’t turn around quickly, the wealthy owners will own an EFL Championship side this time next year.

The Magpies rank toward the bottom of the league in many key statistics, including expected goals (9.5), xG allowed (16.7), big scoring chances allowed (18) and goals allowed (20), according to fbref.com.

If you’re looking for some positivity for Newcastle, the striking duo of Callum Wilson and Allan Saint-Maximin have been on good form this season, combining for six of the team’s 10 league goals and three assists.

Tuchel Turns Chelsea into Dominant Force

Manager Thomas Tuchel has built a well-oiled machine at Chelsea since he took over in the middle of last season. And that dominance has shown in the advanced metrics, as well as the results on the field. 

Going forward, the Blues rank in the top four of the EPL in goals scored (23), xG (15.1) and big chances created (14) in the statistical categories.

Defensively, the numbers are just as good. Chelsea has allowed the fewest goals (three) in the first division and are high in the table in xG allowed (10.3) this campaign. 

Barring any late injury news, the league leaders will likely be without their top two strikers for this match in Romelu Lukaku and Timo Werner. However, It didn’t seem to slow them down in the 7-0 thrashing of Norwich City last weekend, which shows there’s more than enough quality in this Chelsea team to cope with the absentees.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

As you would expect, DraftKings has listed Chelsea as big favorite at -270 on the moneyline to go with a total of 2.5 goals, with the over juiced at -150.

Regression is surely coming for the Blues at some point, but I don’t think this weekend will be it. That said, my best bet for this game is to take the visitors on the spread of -1.5 at +115 odds.

We broke down the major differences in quality in the team previews above, but let’s take a look at how each team has done against similar opponents.

Chelsea has beaten every bottom half team this season by at least two goals, which includes wins over Crystal Palace (3-0); Aston Villa (3-0); Southampton (3-1); and, Norwich City via that 7-0 rout. You can even throw in the victory over Champions League foe Malmö (4-0) if you’d like.

When you look at who Newcastle has played, the same bet against them in matches against West Ham United (4-2) and Manchester United (4-1) would have cashed as well.

The Chelsea — Win To Nil bet (-110) is also worth a look here, but the Magpies have found a way to score in all but one fixture this season. You could also look at the Asian Handicap of -1.25 (-120) if you want some extra security if Tuchel’s team only wins by a lone goal.

Let’s back the Blues to continue to dominate with a multi-goal victory.

Pick: Chelsea -1.5 (+115)

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