Sunday Premier League Odds, Pick, Preview: Can Spurs Hang With Powerful Liverpool in EPL Match?
Clive Brunskill/Getty Images. Pictured: Mohamed Salah.
- Tottenham heads into battle against Liverpool in Sunday’s Premier League showdown.
- Mohamed Salah has been carrying the Reds this season, but they could face a challenge in this spot.
- Brett Pund takes a deep dive into the confrontation below and details why he expects Spurs to get a result.
Spurs vs. Liverpool Odds
|Over/Under||2.5 (-160 / +125)|
|Day | Time||Sunday | 11:30 a.m. ET|
|How To Watch||Peacock Premium|
|Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.|
With so many games postponed due to COVID-19 outbreaks, we have a great matchup Sunday to finish the weekend’s Premier League slate with Liverpool traveling to London to face Tottenham.
The Reds have won nine consecutive games in all competitions and come into the game just one point behind league leaders Manchester City.
Spurs last played on Dec. 5 as their last three matches have been moved to later dates. However, they have seen great form since manager Antonio Conte was hired.
This series has been dominated in recent years by Liverpool, which has won 12 out of the last 17 Premier League meetings against Tottenham.
Both clubs need wins, so we should have a great match at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
Spurs Already Looking Better Under Conte
Although it has been a few weeks since Spurs last played, you can already start to see the team improve under Conte. Tottenham is undefeated four games under the Italian in the Premier League, picking up wins over Leeds United, Brentford and Norwich City to go with a draw with Everton.
Spurs won the expected goals (xG) battle in all four fixtures, posting an xG difference of +2.4 on 1.725 xG per match, according to fbref.com.
Both of those metrics are a big turnaround from the first 10 league games before Conte arrived, during which Tottenham held a -2.8 xG difference and were registering 1.02 xG per game.
Salah Continues to Lead Dominant Liverpool
Liverpool has been one of the most dominant teams in all of Europe this season, winning all six group games in the Champions League and only dropping points in five of its first 17 Premier League matches.
The advanced metrics tell the same dominant story, with the Reds leading the league in xG (43.8), shots per match (19.35) and goals scored (48).
Other than maybe Real Madrid’s Karim Benzema, Mohamed Salah is having the best individual season in all of Europe so far. The Egyptian leads the Premier League in goals (15) and assists (nine).
Defensively, the Reds have been just as good, trailing only Man City in xG allowed (15.1) and opponents’ goals scored (12).
Betting Analysis & Pick
I’m not excited about jumping in front of the Reds right now, but this number is way too big to back them on the road.
My best bet is to take Spurs on the Asian Handicap of +1 at -120 odds.
I want to stress that you should wait until the lineups are announced before you make this play. While we are confident that it should be a strong side, we still don’t know who is available for Tottenham. Meanwhile, Liverpool also announced COVID-19 absentees for its midweek match with Newcastle, including center back Virgil van Dijk.
Given Spurs’ improvement under Conte, I think they have great value to avoid losing this match by multiple goals.
As long as most of the regulars are in the starting XI, I think this makes a good time to bet against an overpriced Liverpool team.
Pick: Spurs +1 (-120)
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