Premier League Odds, Picks, Predictions: Spurs vs. Norwich City Betting Preview
Chris Brunskill/Fantasista/Getty Images. Pictured: Harry Kane.
- Tottenham Hotspur takes on lowly Norwich City in Sunday’s Premier League action.
- Spurs, led by new manager Antonio Conte, are huge favorites against the subpar Canaries.
- Brett Pund’s breaks down the match below and gives his top pick tied to the game total.
Spurs vs. Norwich City Odds
|Norwich City Odds||+800|
|Over/Under||2.5 (-125 / +100)|
|Day | Time||Sunday | 9 a.m. ET|
|How To Watch||Peacock Premium|
|Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.|
Two of the six clubs to have fired their managers this season face off on Sunday when Tottenham Hotspur faces Norwich City.
Tottenham enters the game in sixth in the EPL table, picking up two wins and a draw in the three league matches under Antonio Conte.
The visiting Canaries find themselves in the relegation zone, bottom of the league on 10 points entering Sunday. However, they are also undefeated in three games with Dean Smith in charge.
Both squads will be looking to continue their strong form and momentum, so let’s dive into the match to find the best betting value on the board.
Spurs’ Revival Will Start With Attack
Of all of the new managers in the English top flight, Conte joined the club with the best standing in the league. There’s still plenty of work to be done to get Spurs back to where they want to be, though.
It’s too small of a sample size to know if Tottenham has improved under new leadership, with wins over Leeds, Brentford and Vitesse to go along with a draw at Everton and embarrassing loss to Slovenian club Mura in the Europe Conference League.
Conte knows he needs to get more from his attacking talent, where Spurs rank in the bottom half of the league in goals (13), expected goals (15.4), shots per match (10.46) and big chances created (10).
Korean attacker Son Heung-min leads the team with five league goals, while star striker Harry Kane has struggled early in the campaign with just one lone goal.
Norwich City Showing Promise Under Smith
On one hand, Norwich only has 10 points on the season. On the other, eight of those have come in the last six matches.
The Canaries are undefeated in their last four, securing victories over Brentford and Southampton and getting draws with Wolves and Newcastle.
Although things have been more positive lately, the stats on the whole of the campaign paint a different picture. Norwich has the fewest goals scored (eight) and given up the second most (28) through 14 matches.
Finnish striker Teemu Pukki has been the key to the recent uptick in form, finding the back of the net in three of the last four games to lead the team with five goals on the season.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Looking at the odds for the game, DraftKings has Tottenham listed as the big favorite of -260 on the moneyline. The total is set at 2.5 goals and shaded to the over at -125 odds.
I’m not expecting many goals in this match, which is why my best bet is to take the under 2.75 goals via the Asian Handicap at -125 odds.
Although neither team has great defensive numbers, the offensive metrics for both clubs are some of the worst in the league.
Norwich has started to fare much better in front of goal lately, but you have to take a deeper look at how they have done against teams with above-average defenses.
The Canaries failed to score this season against teams like Wolves, Chelsea, Brighton & Hove Albion and Liverpool. Meanwhile, Spurs have posted just above mid-table numbers in defensive metrics like xG allowed (eighth) and goals surrendered (tied for seventh) this season.
Another key metric I like to look at for totals is combined xG over the last five matches, where Tottenham’s games have had 2.49 compared to 2.34 for fixtures involving Norwich.
If you’re looking for better prices, I don’t hate a bet on the under 2.5 goals at even money or the Single Game Parlay of Spurs to win combined with the total staying under 2.5 goals at +215 odds.
There’s multiple ways to bet this match, and they all center around it being a low-scoring contest.
Pick: Total Under 2.75 Goals (-125)