Wolves vs. Liverpool Odds, Pick, Prediction: Can Underdog Keep it Close in Saturday EPL Clash?
Jack Thomas – WWFC/Wolves via Getty Images. Pictured: Wolves standout Hwang Hee-chan.
- Liverpool is a massive favorite over Wolves in Saturday English Premier League action, with the total at 2.5.
- Brad Cunningham makes the Reds a smaller favorite than the market, however, so he's backing Wolves at +1.5.
- Get his full Liverpool vs. Wolves preview and pick below.
Wolves vs. Liverpool Odds
|Over/Under||2.5 (-150 / +120)|
|Day | Time||Saturday | 10 a.m. ET|
|How To Watch||USA Network | fuboTV|
|Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.|
Liverpool looks to keep pace in the Premier League title race Saturday when it travels to Molineux Stadium to take on Wolves.
Wolverhampton got an underserving 0-0 draw in the midweek at home against Burnley, but is still sitting in eighth place and only three points outside the top four in the standings. However, Wolves haven’t played any of the top three teams, so this will be the season’s biggest test for Bruno Lage’s men.
Liverpool has been on fire in the English top flight, winning their last three matches by a combined score of 12-1 overall. The Reds have consistently dominated lesser competition, but this is a very interesting matchup considering the type of problems Wolves can present them.
Wolves Could Cause Problems on Home Pitch
Wolverhampton is the type of team that can give Liverpool a lot of trouble. If you’re going to beat or challenge the global powerhouse, you first have to have a good defensive structure that won’t allow stars Mohamed Salah and Sadio Mané a lot of open spaces.
Wolves checks that box, considering they’re allowing only 1.02 expected goals per 90 minutes out of Lage’s 3-4-3 formation, per understat.com.
StatsBomb's pressure data enables more accurate evaluations of team and player defensive behaviours, and is available in each of the 80+ competitions we cover
The percentage of opposition actions that were performed under pressure, English Premier League 2021-22 🔽 pic.twitter.com/Klut7zLUhl
— StatsBomb (@StatsBomb) December 1, 2021
Wolves is a very interesting team in the fact they don’t press high. Yet, once a team crosses the halfway line, they hunt in packs and stay cohesive in their pressing. That makes it very difficult for opponents to play through them, because they have the second-best pressure success rate in the league.
So, Wolves is the type of lower side that can give Liverpool some trouble.
Liverpool Maintaining Offensive Dominance
Offensively, Liverpool is putting up crazy numbers right now, averaging 2.61 NPxG per match. The Reds have created 41 big scoring chances in 14 matches. Liverpool’s front three of Mohammed Salah, Sadio Mane and Diego Jota have combined for 26 goals already, boasting an xG per 90 minute-scoring stat line of more 0.6 this season.
Now, the question is whether or not Liverpool play through Wolves’ press because if it does have one offensive weakness, it’s that it’s not very good against teams that press them, as they’re 13th in pressure success rate conceded thus far.
Now, the Reds consistently play a lot of long balls into Salah and Mane from their center backs since they’re first touch is so good. However, Wolves have been outstanding at preventing passes and dribbling into their own penalty area, as they only allow 11.85 box entries per 90 minutes, which is the eighth best in the league, per fbref.com.
Finally, Wolves doesn’t create a lot of chances, as they’re 17th in shots per 90 minutes, but when they do, they’re high quality because they have the fourth-most big scoring chances this season. Liverpool has been somewhat susceptible to allowing those big scoring chances, as they’ve already conceded 13 during their campaign.
Betting Analysis & Pick
There are a lot of things to consider in this matchup, especially Wolves’ pressing that can give Liverpool trouble. However, the hosts haven’t faced one of the top-three clubs yet, so the question is if they’ll be ready for the challenge.
I only have Liverpool’s spread projected at -0.91, so I love Wolves getting +1.5 goals at -145 odds and will make it my top pick.
Pick: Wolves +1.5 (-135)