Premier League Prop Picks & Best Bets: 3 Top Plays, Including Manchester City & Manchester United (Oct. 16)
Paul Ellis – Pool/Getty Images. Pictured: Manchester United standout Paul Pogba.
- If you love soccer props, we have you covered for Saturday's Premier League action.
- Avery Zimmerman delivers his three favorite prop picks, including plays for the Manchester City and Manchester United games.
- Check out below for his detailed insight and betting angles tied to his selections.
Things should be pretty electric around the Premier League this weekend with the return of action following the latest international break.
And with the English top flight coming back from its hiatus, we're delivering more betting angles with value at The Action Network via our new element that will feature our three favorite prop plays. From player angles to team and game angles, you will find a little bit of everything to entertain your palate.
Without further ado, check out below where I've landed on three featured props, which comes from matches featuring Liverpool, Manchester City and Manchester United.
Premier League Prop Bets
Watford vs. Liverpool
| The Pick | Watford — Total Over 1.5 Cards (-122) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 7:30 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | Peacock Premium |
| Best odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here. | |
Watford isn't a team that's afraid to foul and foul often. Getting stuck in and trying to win every 50-50 ball is a part of the club's identity, so if they can't win the ball, they'll likely be content with getting the man.
In four of the Hornets' last five league games, they've had three-plus cautions, and the speed and fluency of Liverpool's attack is far greater than what the they've had to deal with so far this season. Despite only spending a year in the Championship, Watford is still getting accustomed to the elevated pace of play in the English top flight, as evidenced by these numbers.
And while Liverpool might be without some key players Saturday — namely Thiago, Allison and Fabinho — the dynamic duo of Mohamed Salah and Sadio Mané will likely be two of the first names on the team sheet.
Liverpool is to be a nightmare for Watford to deal with, so you can expect a consistent dosage of tactical fouls from the host's defense. The Hornets will be doing everything in their power to avoid letting the two Liverpool stars advance into dangerous positions.
Man City vs. Burnley
| The Pick | 1H Total Under 1.5 Goals (-128) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 10 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | Peacock Premium |
| Best odds via PointsBet. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here. | |
Burnley will travel just a touch south to face an opponent that has given them fits in recent meetings. In the pair's last 13 meetings, Manchester City has won 12 of them and drawn once, resulting in an aggregate score of 42-5 overall. However, this isn't why I'm focusing on the halftime total for this contest.
Rather, it's an aspect of a lack of form on City's end. Coming out of the last four international breaks, the Cityzens' league contests have featured a maximum of two goals and no game had more than one goal in the first half.
Manchester City has followed up three of those games with three-plus goal affairs in Champions League fixtures, but in only one of them did the reigning EPL champion score more in the first half than the second. For some reason, it's a team that historically starts in a sluggish manner following international breaks, despite maintaining an effective back line in those performances.
Instead of going with a straight total that offers City a chance to find its rhythm in the contest, you can opt for a first-half total that can give you a touch more security with regard to the club's firepower and allows you to capitalize on this trend.
Leicester vs. Man United
| The Pick | Man United — Most Corners (-112) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 10 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | USA Network | fuboTV |
| Best odds via PointsBet. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here. | |
Manchester United and Leicester City have put on some thrilling, high-leverage contests in recent seasons, with the past three fixtures containing at least three goals and the Red Devils taking the all-important, do-or-die UCL fixture at the end of the shortened COVID-19 2019 season.
That being said, my focus isn't on an exciting aspect of the game. Instead, I'm going to focus on the corners total for each team. United has generated 52 corner kicks in its first seven games, garnering more corners than its opponent in five of those matches. The Red Devils were level on corners in fixtures with Aston Villa and Southampton as well.
On the other hand, Leicester has only earned 39 corners in its first seven EPL contests. The Foxes are 4-2-1 against opponents in total corner kicks. At this price, United's implied probability of 52.8% is undervaluing the team's chances of generating more corners than Leicester.
Other available wagers also give a good indication the Red Devils are underpriced in this category. United has a -134 price to take the first corner; -139 price in the race to two corners; and, -134 odds in the race to three corners. The -112 odds to generate more corners throughout the match is a great opportunity.
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