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Premier League Week 34 Betting Odds and Preview: Which Clubs are Ripe for an Upset?

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Chelsea FC. Pictured: Eden Hazard

  • The 2018-19 Premier League season is down to the final five weeks and Sunday's match between Liverpool and Chelsea is massively important for the title race.
  • Bettors have come in on both sides of Liverpool-Chelsea, but there are plenty of other games on the board presenting value including Leicester City-Newcastle and Manchester United-West Ham.

Liverpool currently lead the Premier League by two points, but second-place Manchester City have a game in hand and the goal differential advantage.

Chelsea will have a chance on Sunday to put a serious dent into the Reds’ hopes of their first English title since 1989-90.

Here’s a look at the betting trends for this season along with a betting breakdown and value plays for Week 34 action.

2018-19 Season Betting Results

  • Draws are hitting at a record-low 15.1% for the 2018-19 season and there has been just one draw in the last three weeks (Bournemouth-Newcastle 2-2 on March 16th).
  • Home teams continue to roll, accumulating more than +31 units on the year. Road teams have cost bettors nearly 25 units.
  • Favorites now have the clear edge earning +10.34 units on the season while underdogs are down 3.44 units overall.
  • Leicester City remain the most profitable moneyline club (+15.48 units) while Fulham (-23.39 u) and Huddersfield (-17.65 u) are the least profitable by far.

It’s certainly been a disappointing season for value plays (EPL Season Record: 40-77-1, -23.96 units) but we’ll see if we can end on a high note the last month.


Week 34 Betting Market Breakdown

(Odds are always on the move until kickoff, so be sure to follow all the latest lines and betting percentages here)

Leicester City (-155) are the most popular bet on the board this weekend as they’ve attracted 84% of moneyline bets against Newcastle.

Despite the public attention, historical trends actually point toward the Magpies pulling off an upset at the current price of +500:

(Historical data and betting systems via Bet Labs)

After Leicester, the most popular wagers in Week 34 are a pair of favorites: Brighton (75% vs. Bournemouth) and Arsenal (79% at Watford).

Public bettors are also high on some lofty underdogs this weekend including Huddersfield (+1350 at Tottenham), West Ham (+900 at Manchester United) and Fulham (+370 vs. Everton), but I’m not quite sold on those outright upset victories.

In the marquee match-up on Sunday, Liverpool host Chelsea at Anfield (9 a.m. ET on NBC Sports) and money has been flowing in on both sides.

The Reds originally opened in the -170 range but have since moved to -150, while the Blues have improved from +470 to +435. The draw hasn’t received much love yet but there’s been a slight drop in the odds since opening, from +320 to +310.

Chelsea have closed above +400 odds only three times since 2012, going 1-2 for +2.37 units in those games. However, the last occurrence was a 6-0 drubbing by Manchester City in February.

In the totals market, smart money has caused a shift in the juice toward the Crystal Palace-Manchester City Under (3), Watford-Arsenal Over (3) and Brighton-Bournemouth Under (2.5).

Value Plays

  • Newcastle (+500) at Leicester City
  • Bournemouth-Brighton Draw (+230)
  • Wolves-Southampton Draw (+225)
  • Manchester United-West Ham Draw (+400)
  • Cardiff (+345) at Burnley

Want live updates of the action all weekend? Follow @actionnetsoccer on Twitter for all the latest soccer betting news around the market.

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