European Soccer Previews, April 12-15: Best Bets for La Liga, Bundesliga and Serie A
Eibar Football Club.
- The European domestic seasons are down to the final two months and there's plenty at stake at the top and bottom of the league tables.
- We're broken down the title races, relegation battles and betting markets heading into this weekend's action in Spain's La Liga, Germany's Bundesliga and Italy's Serie A.
Barcelona and Juventus are running away with La Liga and Serie A respectively, but the title race in Germany’s Bundesliga remains an intriguing battle between Bayern Munich and Dortmund.
Here’s a look at the title races, relegation battles and betting breakdowns around Europe’s major leagues this weekend.
Title and Relegation Battle
Barcelona are now 11 points clear at the top of the league after defeating Atletico Madrid, 2-0, last weekend at Camp Nou. Odds are off the board around most of the market, but there are some sportsbooks offering Barca at 1-1000 to win the title and Atletico Madrid at 500-1.
Huesca (24 points) and Rayo Vallecano (27) are the bottom-two clubs and still stuck in the relegation zone. Villarreal (30), Valladolid (30 pts), Celta Vigo (32), Levante (33) and Girona (34) are all trying to avoid the last and final relegation spot.
La Liga Week 32 Odds and Betting Breakdown
Since opening, odds have been on the move toward Sevilla (-125 to -140 vs. Real Betis), Atletico Bilbao (-140 to -160 vs. Rayo Vallecano) and Huesca (+700 to +400 vs. Barcelona).
Sevilla and Atletico Bilbao both garnered some early sharp action as home favorites. Sevilla can move into fourth place with a victory while Bilbao could slide into a tie for sixth place with a win.
The shift away from Barcelona is most likely due to surrounding Champions League games against Manchester United, signaling there’s a good chance they’ll be resting key players.
A popular parlay among public bettors will be Barcelona/Atletico Madrid/Real Madrid, which pays out around +285 odds, but I’ll be passing on all the favorites this weekend.
Value Plays (La Liga Season Record: 2-3-0, +0.45 units)
- Eibar (+225) at Real Sociedad
- Sevilla-Real Betis Draw (+315)
Title And Relegation Battle
Bayern Munich have overtaken Dortmund for the top spot in the Bundesliga after thrashing their counterparts, 5-0, at the Allianz Arena last weekend. Bayern are now -270 favorites to win the title with Dortmund coming in at +235.
In the relegation battle, Hannover (14 points) and Nurnberg (17) look doomed to be relegated while Stuttgart also remain multiple wins away from safety. If they finish in 16th they’ll enter into a playoff against a lower division club.
Bundesliga Week 29 Odds and Betting Breakdown
Bettors continue to bank on Frankfurt as they haven’t lost a league match since December 22, 2018 (3-0 to Bayern Munich). For Saturday, they’ve shifted from -190 to -210 against Augsburg behind a bit of sharp action as they look to stay unbeaten this calendar year.
Smart money clearly likes the favorites in good form this weekend with bettors also on Hoffeneim (-190 to -220 vs. Hertha Berlin) and RB Leipzig (-155 to -175 vs. Wolfsburg).
High-flying Hoffenheim rolled to another blowout victory and they’ve now scored four goals in each of the last two games. Meanwhile, RB Leipzig have won four straight matches while outscoring opponents 12-3 in that span.
Value Plays (Bundesliga Season Record: 4-0-0, +3.14 units)
- Hoffenheim-Hertha Berlin Over 3.5 (-110)
- Dusseldorf-Bayern Munich Over 3.5 (-115)
- Leverkusen (-125) at Stuttgart
Title and Relegation Battle
Juventus can clinch their eighth straight Serie A title with a win at SPAL on Saturday or a loss by second-place Napoli, who are 20 points behind with seven matches remaining.
Chievo (11 pts) will officially be relegated with another loss this weekend as they’ve picked up just one victory in the league all season.
The battle for the last two relegation spots will be between Frosinone (23 pts), Empoli (28 pts), Bologna (30 pts), SPAL (32 pts), Udinese (32 pts), Parma (34 pts) and Genoa (34 pts).
Serie A Week 32 Odds and Betting Breakdown
Odds are moving away from Juventus for the second straight week, but again the adjustment is mostly due to their Champions League quarterfinal schedule against Ajax. At this point there’s absolutely no need to risk any players who are fighting nagging injuries, especially Cristiano Ronaldo.
Around the market, sharp bettors hit Roma (-180 to -200 vs. Udinese) and Atalanta (-220 to -270 vs. Empoli) early in the week even though they’re both heavy favorites. Their opponents are each stuck in the bottom-six of the league table and can’t afford more losses, but wiseguys don’t like their chances of springing an upset.
We’ve also seen a bit of smart money on Fiorentina (-115 vs. Bologna) despite the fact manager Stefano Pioli stepped down after last weekend’s home loss. It’s already the 12th coaching change in Italy’s Serie A during the season which is an incredible turnover rate.
Want live updates of the action all weekend? Be sure to follow @actionnetsoccer on Twitter for all the latest soccer betting news around the market.