RB Leipzig vs. Club Brugge Betting Odds, Pick, Prediction: Back German Side as Favorite

RB Leipzig vs. Club Brugge Betting Odds, Pick, Prediction: Back German Side as Favorite article feature image
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DeFodi Images/Getty Images. Pictured: Emil Forsberg

RB Leipzig vs. Club Brugge Odds

RB Leipzig Odds -225
Club Brugge Odds +550
Draw +390
Over/Under 3.5 (+130/ -165)
Day | Time Tuesday | 3 p.m. ET
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RB Leipzig looks to grab all three points in a must win spot against Belgian side Club Brugge.

RB Leipzig has gotten off to an interesting start under new manager Jesse Marsch, earning only seven points from their first six matches in the Bundesliga.

They were thrashed by Manchester City in their opening Champions League match, allowing six goals off of only 2.79 xG. With this being their easiest match of the Champions League group stage, Leipzig needs all three points if they want to somehow make it to the Round of 16.

Club Brugge got their Champions League campaign off to a fantastic start, drawing 1-1 with French giants PSG at home. This is the Belgian champion’s fourth consecutive year in the UCL, but they have failed to make it out of the group stage in each of those four years. A win on the road at RB Leipzig could give them a shot to shock the world and reach the Round of 16.

Can Defense Carry RB Leipzig to Crucial Victory?

RB Leipzig rebounded from a bad start to the season this weekend by thrashing Hertha Berlin 6-0 at home.

RB Leipzig may have lost 6-3 to Manchester City in their first Champions League match, but scoring three goals against Manchester City’s defense is a very difficult thing to do. This only happened three times last season, and two of them were in the final three matches of the Premier League season when Manchester City had already secured the title and were resting their starters.

RB Leipzig finished second in the first division behind Bayern Munich last season. However, when looking at xG and expected points, they were actually better than the nine-time defending champion. Leipzig had a +37.9 xGDiff, compared to Bayern’s +37.06 xGDiff.

The reason for that is because it was by far the best defense in the German top flight, allowing only 0.86 xG per match. Consequently, it’s going to be difficult for Club Brugge to create anything on their defense.

Club Brugge Facing Tough Matchup in Germany

Club Brugge might have drawn 1-1 with PSG in their Champions League match, but the Belgian champions have a major uphill climb against Leipzig. They haven’t been that dominant in their domestic campaign, earning 18 points from their first nine matches, and were trashed 6-1 by Gent a few weeks ago.

Last season in the Champions League, Brugge were drawn in the same group with fellow German side Dortmund, who are a very comparable side to RB Leipzig. Dortmund completely dismantled them by a combined score of 6-0 and held Brugge to a total of 0.06 xG in the second match.

Also based on UEFA Coefficients, Germany is the fourth most difficult league to play in Europe, while Belgium is the 13th most difficult. So, RB Leipzig gets a big advantage in terms of level of the level of competition they face on a week in week out basis.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

RB Leipzig has consistently shown an ability to trash lessor opponents over the past few seasons in both the Champions League and Bundesliga, so I think this is a good buy low spot for them.

I have RB Leipzig’s spread projected at -1.36, so I think there is some value on their spread of -1 at -130 odds (DraftKings) and would play it up to -140 odds.

Pick: RB Leipzig -1 (-130)

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