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Saturday European Soccer Odds, Picks, Preview: Our Favorite Bets, Including Real Madrid vs. Real Sociedad

Saturday European Soccer Odds, Picks, Preview: Our Favorite Bets, Including Real Madrid vs. Real Sociedad article feature image
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Berengui/DeFodi Images via Getty Images. Pictured: Real Madrid standout Karim Benzema.

We have another busy card on the European soccer landscape this weekend, featuring several high-profile matches on the docket. And that means The Action Network crew has you covered with more best bets from the slate.

Handicappers Jeremy Pond, Anthony Dabbundo and Brett Pund deliver their top picks on the card, with their favorite selections coming from intriguing showdowns pitting Newcastle United vs. Burnley, Napoli vs. Atalanta and Real Madrid vs. Real Sociedad.

Check out below how they’re playing these matchups and what kind of value they’ve found ahead of these important fixtures.

Newcastle vs. Burnley

Newcastle Odds +125
Burnley Odds +210
Draw +240
Over/Under 2.5 (-110/ -125)
Time 10 a.m. ET
How To Watch NBCSN | fuboTV
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here

Jeremy Pond: Welcome to a clash from the Premier League cellar.

Yes, two of the worst clubs in the English top flight will be squaring off when Newcastle United hosts Burnley at St. James’ Park.

The Magpies are winless through 14 fixtures and sit in last place with seven points. As for the Clarets, they haven’t been much better. They’ve only mustered 10 points, which puts them even with lowly Norwich City. However, Burnley holds the tiebreaker to park it at 18th in the standings.

Both outfits have been downright terrible defensively, giving up a combined 50 goals thus far. To really put how poorly they’ve been into perspective, Chelsea and Manchester City — the top EPL sides — have only conceded 14 goals combined in one more match.

Needless to say, Newcastle and Burnley are in dire need of all three points in this spot. And because of that, I think we’re going to see both on the go from the start, with the hope of putting the other in even more relegation peril.

So, for that reason, I’m backing both teams to score at -135 odds via BetMGM and will make it my top selection. Throw in the fact my colleague, BJ Cunningham, has Newcastle forecasted at 1.45 expected goals and Burnley pegged for 1.30 xG, and I like my chances of hitting this wager at a nice price.

Pond’s Pick: Both Teams To Score — Yes (-135)

Napoli vs. Atalanta

Napoli Odds +145
Atalanta Odds +185
Draw +250
Over/Under 2.5 (-155 / +130)
Time 2:45 p.m. ET
How To Watch Paramount+
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Anthony Dabbundo: Napoli dropped points midweek against Sassuolo after blowing a 2-0 lead and nearly losing in stoppage time before Video Assistant Referee overturned the host’s potential winning goal. The league leaders sit on 36 points thus far, but their xG and expected points suggest they’ve been quite fortunate at both ends of the pitch thus far.

Napoli has just 30.4 xPoints, per Understat, and is finishing chances at an unsustainable 25% over expected and its defense has run well ahead of its xG allowed prior to Wednesday’s fixture.

Atalanta might not be as dominant of an attack as year’s past, but La Dea have the second-best xG numbers in the Italian top flight behind only Inter Milan. The attack has trended up considerably in the last few weeks as they’ve begun to dominate weaker sides like typical Atalanta teams of the past have done.

Napoli is also dealing with the loss of Victor Osimhen in attack, as the team is back to starting Dries Mertens as its lone striker. They’ve produced just 2.0 xG in the first two matches since his departure to injury and the shots are down considerably.

Even though it is away from home, this game is a tossup game with Napoli regression coming. That said, I’ll take Atalanta on the Draw No Bet line at anything plus money.

Dabbundo’s Pick: Atalanta — Draw No Bet (+110)

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Real Madrid vs. Real Sociedad

Real Madrid Odds +125
Real Sociedad Odds +230
Draw +245
Over/Under 2.5 (-120 / -105)
Time 3 p.m. ET
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Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Brett Pund: Real Madrid has been one of the highest-scoring teams in all of Europe. However, I’m not expecting that to continue against Real Sociedad.

The White and Blues rank second in La Liga in xG allowed per 90 minutes (0.87) and shots allowed per match (9.2), according to fbref.com, while being tied with Athletic Club and Sevilla for fewest goals surrendered (11) as well.

Meanwhile, the total under 2.5 goals has cashed in 12 of their 15 league games as well.

You also have to look at how Real Madrid has done against teams with the better defenses in the Spanish top flight.

Against the top sides on its schedule in Valencia, Barcelona, Osasuna, Sevilla and Athletic Club, Madrid has averaged 1.2 xG, which is well below the season average of 1.73 overall. Even the combined xG average in those fixtures (2.36) was much lower than the 2.97 for the season average.

There could also be some rotation for Los Blancos with this being the third consecutive difficult match this week before the vital game against Inter Milan in next week’s Champions League showdown.

All of this adds up to a great opportunity to take a rare under in a Real Madrid match.

Pund’s Pick: Total Under 2.5 Goals (-105)

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