Saturday Premier League Betting Odds & Picks: Chelsea vs. Crystal Palace (Oct. 3)

Chelsea vs. Crystal Palace Odds

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Things get started bright and early Saturday in South London when Chelsea hosts Crystal Palace in Premier League action at Stamford Bridge.

The Blues and Eagles kick off an interesting weekend card of matches that comes right before the international break puts a halt to the action that really just started in England’s top flight.

Let’s take a quick look at these sides and what to expect from this showdown:

Chelsea

Manager Frank Lampard hopes his team can shake off some mediocre form with a little home cooking against Crystal Palace.

Chelsea had to claw its way back from a three-goal deficit to secure a 3-3 draw against lowly West Bromwich Albion in its most recent league fixture. which didn’t get the club’s supporters much to be pleased about this early in the campaign.

The Blues were then eliminated from the EFL Cup by Tottenham Hotspur during midweek action, so a solid performance is a must for the hosts.

The amount of data and statistical information is small, but Chelsea currently sits on 4.5 expected goals and a dismal 5.0 expected goals against, resulting in a -0.5 xGDiff and not so flattering -0.17 xGDiff/90 minutes.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

Crystal Palace

Taking everything into account, the Eagles could not be happier with their start to the season. The visitors have two wins in three games thus far, which has them comfortably sitting inside the Top 10 at this early stage of a very long season.

Victories against Manchester United at Old Trafford, followed by a triumph against Southampton, has to have the club excited and optimistic this won’t be a situation where it’s fighting to stay above the relegation line.

If we’re being honest, the Eagles should probably still be unbeaten after being burned by a sketchy, late penalty against Everton that took them from a point and tie to no points and defeat.

Crystal Palace also have some subpar numbers in similar categories when it comes to stats, sitting on 2.7 expected goals and 3.8 expected goals against, resulting in a -1.1 xGDiff and -0.37 xGDiff/90 minutes.

Betting Analysis

Chelsea is a massive favorite in this match, but it really hasn’t been playing its best brand of football. I feel this line is so lopsided due to history and name recognition only.

Could the Blues and Timo Werner run away with the win? Sure. However, I feel like this is going to way tighter than anticipated and expect Crystal Palace to not show any fear about a tilt at The Bridge after thumping Manchester United at the more intimidating Old Trafford to start the season.

With that in mind, I am going to back the total to go over the number and play both sides to score in the match.

Picks: Total Over 2.5 Goals (-162) | Both Teams To Score — Yes (-127)

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