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Chelsea vs. Fulham EPL Odds, Pick, Prediction: Take Total Behind Blues’ Stellar Defense (May 1)

Chelsea vs. Fulham EPL Odds, Pick, Prediction: Take Total Behind Blues’ Stellar Defense (May 1) article feature image

Chris Lee – Chelsea FC/Chelsea FC via Getty Images. Pictured: Chelsea manager Thomas Tuchel encourages Jorginho during a match with Everton.

  • Chelsea takes on Fulham in Premier League action Saturday at Stamford Bridge (12:30 p.m. ET, NBC).
  • The Blues have a Champions League semifinal leg coming up next week, so their lineup could change tremendously for this matchup against one of the league's worst teams.
  • Matthew Trebby breaks down the game below and shares a betting pick based on his analysis.

Chelsea vs. Fulham Odds

Chelsea Odds -210
Fulham Odds +650
Draw +320
Over/Under 2.5 (+106 / -132)
Day | Time Saturday | 12:30 p.m. ET
Odds updated Friday afternoon via DraftKings.

This might be the last West London Derby for quite some time.

With Fulham destined for relegation and in need of a miracle to stay up, it travels to take on a Chelsea club with its eyes on a European prize. The Blues will go from hosting Fulham on Saturday to Real Madrid on Wednesday — quite a gulf in quality there.

Let’s break down where the betting value lies in this matchup.

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With a Champions League semifinal second leg on Wednesday, it wouldn’t be unreasonable for Chelsea to heavily rotate the squad for this game. The Blues drew with Real Madrid, 1-1, in Spain on Tuesday, registering an impressive expected goals (xG) victory of 1.4-0.3.

Prior to that, the Blues delivered an impressive 1-0 win over West Ham in the Premier League, with a 2.2-0.4 xG advantage.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

The Blues have been under machines under Thomas Tuchel. They’ve been below the 2.5 total 19 times in 22 matches since Frank Lampard was sacked.

I would expect some unfamiliar faces in the Chelsea midfield and attack, given the depth in quality it has. But since most players I anticipate having a chance of starting (Tammy Abraham, Hakim Ziyech, Mateo Kovacic, Olivier Giroud) haven’t played much of late, I don’t expect a huge goal total from the Blues.

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Fulham’s hopes of Premier League survival have all but gone out the window due to its recently terrible form.

The Cottagers have just one point from their last five games, while Brighton has five and Newcastle eight. Because of that, Fulham is destined for relegation, trailing Brighton by seven points with five games remaining.

Two of those games are this trip to Chelsea and a visit to Old Trafford to face Manchester United. Fulham always faced an uphill battle to stay in the English top-flight, and it’s going to have failed to do so come the end of the season.

Back on March 7, Fulham delivered its best performance of the season with a 1-0 win over Liverpool at Anfield. It was then outscored, 9-2, over its next four games before conceding a stoppage-time equalizer that took away a win from them against Arsenal.

Chance creating hasn’t been too much of a problem of late, with Fulham registering at least 0.8 xG in 14 of its last 17 Premier League games. That might be difficult to do against a Chelsea side that is humming defensively.

Betting Analysis & Pick

The trend of unders with Chelsea simply cannot be ignored. The lowest number can be found at DraftKings, so we’ll go there for this match’s best bet.

Fulham isn’t in form in front of goal, and I’m not anticipating a full-strength Chelsea team compared to the one we will see against Real Madrid on Wednesday. Don’t expect a huge goal total in this one and bet the newest trend in all of soccer: the under.

Pick: Total Under 2.5 Goals (-132)

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