Serie A Betting Odds & Picks: Juventus vs. Roma (Saturday, Feb. 6)

Serie A Betting Odds & Picks: Juventus vs. Roma (Saturday, Feb. 6) article feature image
Credit:

Nicolò Campo/LightRocket via Getty Images. Pictured: Juventus Manager Andrea Pirlo and Cristiano Ronaldo.

  • Cristiano Ronaldo and Juventus welcome Roma to Turin for Saturday's crucial Serie A match.
  • Can CR7 and the Old Lady continue their push toward the top of the table?
  • Anthony Dabbundo explains what we should expect below.

Juventus vs. Roma Odds

Juventus Odds -148
Roma Odds +360
Draw +320
Over/Under 2.5 (-177/+140)
Day | Time Saturday | 12 p.m. ET
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Odds updated as of Saturday morning and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today.

The two closest challengers to Inter Milan and AC Milan at the top of the Serie A table face off Saturday when Roma visits Turin to take on Juventus.

The two have combined to win seven of their last 10 matches in the Italian top flight, with Juventus coming out victorious in four of its last five contests.

The underlying numbers suggest the defenses are both undervalued in this matchup, so let’s take a look at what could be on deck in this battle of league powerhouses.

Juventus

There was much skepticism about Juventus’ chances to repeat as league champion when the season began. An improved Inter combined with Juventus’ slipping underlying numbers, plus an aging Cristiano Ronaldo, contributed to the belief that Inter should be the favorite.

However, the Old Lady’s underlying numbers are still atop the table and within reach of the title entering the second half of the season.

The Juventus defense was a bit shaky to start the season, dropping a lot of points along the way. Yet, the clubs has only allowed six big chances in its last 10 matches, according to Infogol’s metrics.

Juventus has allowed the fewest goals and expected goals per match this year, with its defensive numbers significantly bette than last year. Juventus is allowing less than one xG per match during the current campaign.

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Roma

The Yellow and Reds have piled up plenty of expected goals and actual goals against some of the lower-ranked Serie A teams. Yet, when they’ve played the other top seven teams in the league, they’ve struggled to create chances.

Roma has three draws and three losses against those standout, top teams. It’s only averaging 1.27 xG per 90 when it plays the other top seven teams despite otherwise leading the league in expected goals.

Defensively, no team in the league has been more unlucky than Roma, which has conceded 33 goals from 23.6 expected goals against. If the Yellow and Reds keep up those performances, their defensive results will improve.

Given they are away from home here, they’re likely to look to defend and grab the point, which offers value on the under in this contest.

Roma’s attack has also struggled on the road, ranking eighth in xGF away and also seeing most of its defensive xG underperformance coming on opposition soil. Simply, there have been way more goals scored in its away matches than the numbers suggest there should have been.

Betting Analysis & Picks

Both defenses are underrated and have been improving in recent weeks. Juventus has the league’s best back line by both xGA and goals allowed, while Roma has allowed 10 more goals than their numbers suggest it should have.

Bottom line, this should be a cagey affair. And while I like Roma getting a half goal, I recommend +130 or better if you can find it. For me, the total staying under the alternative number of three goals is the preferred pick at -115 or better.

Pick: Total Under 3 Goals (-114)

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