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Serie A Betting Odds, Picks, Preview, Predictions: Our Weekend Best Bets, Featuring AC Milan & Atalanta

Serie A Betting Odds, Picks, Preview, Predictions: Our Weekend Best Bets, Featuring AC Milan & Atalanta article feature image
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Nicolò Campo/LightRocket via Getty Images. Pictured: AC Milan standout Olivier Giroud.

Our Serie A best bets and selections from last week proved a nice recovery, producing nothing but winners on the exciting weekend schedule.

Our total wagers, coming from matches featuring Napoli vs. Inter Milan and Atalanta vs. Juventus, wound up cashing early, while a last-gasp, stoppage-time Roma goal moved our team total from a loser to a winner.

Those results move this column’s record to 12-8-3 overall, as we get ready to present another trio of selections for the latest slate. Let’s dive into the card.

Serie A Best Bets

Juventus vs. Torino

Juventus Odds -170
Torino Odds +500
Draw +300
Over/Under 2.5 (+100 / -125)
Day | Time Friday | 2:45 p.m. ET
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When these sides last met, they were fairly close to equal. Juventus won the battle  of expected goals by a 1.3-0.9 margin and, thanks to a late goal, secured a 1-0 victory in the process.

Now, The Old Lady renews her derby with 10th-placed Torino on home soil at a venue where they’re much more comfortable playing. However, I’m not looking to lay a goal with Juventus facing a Torino side due for a substantial amount of positive road regression (-6 goal differential on -0.6 xGDiff) at this point.

That said, I’m looking to a Juventus total for the second consecutive week. The one thing we know about Torino is it prefers to play very defensive contests against the league’s best. In seven matches facing the top seven clubs, all but one has finished under 2.5 goals and all but two have finished under 1.5 goals.

These matches aren’t fluky either. In the seven fixtures, the combined xG tally per 90 minutes was 2.06, per fbref.com. The Torino defense has held up quite well, as it has allowed more than 1.5 xGA only once in those seven games.

Meanwhile, the Juventus defense has proven reliable over its last few outings. Set aside its performances against Roma and Atalanta, and bettors will find manager Massimiliano Allegri’s squad has conceded under 1.0 xGA in 11 of its last 12 Serie A contests.

With those trends in mind, back a low-scoring contest Friday at the Allianz Stadium.

Hennion’s Pick: Total Under 2.5 Goals (-125)

Salernitana vs. AC Milan

Salernitana Odds +850
AC Milan Odds -285
Draw +425
Over/Under 2.5 (-160 / +130)
Day | Time Saturday | 2:45 p.m. ET
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I’m placing this match in the “don’t overthink it” betting category, plus I’m even puzzled by the current lines.

Salernitana is far and away the worst team in Italian top flight. Although it hasn’t been as bad as its underlying metrics suggest, it still holds the worst xGDiff in the league.

Plus, Salernitana hasn’t played well against Italy’s best sides, even on home turf. In six home fixtures against current top-seven clubs, Salernitana has lost all six games, including four of them by multiple goals. Further, it hasn’t even managed to score in any of those meetings and allowed at least 1.5 xG in all six of them, per fbref.com.

In its visit to San Siro Stadium to face AC Milan earlier this season, Salernitana was thoroughly dominated. It lost 2-0, while conceding 2.48 xG and five big scoring chances, per fotmob.com.

On the flip side, Milan has a stellar record against the bottom four teams. It is 0-0 (W-L-D) in those tilts, winning all five by at least two goals. Lastly, manager Stefano Pioli’s side didn’t allow more than 0.7 xGA in any of those fixtures.

It might seem a little too obvious, but I’m shocked there’s plus money available on Milan giving -1.5 goals in the matchup. My numbers say this price should be closer to -110, so I’m happy to lay that number with the visitors.

Hennion’s Pick: AC Milan -1.5 (+105)

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Fiorentina vs. Atalanta

Fiorentina Odds +180
Atalanta Odds +155
Draw +245
Over/Under 2.5 (-140 / +115)
Day | Time Sunday | 6:30 a.m. ET
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Some might say this is a bad spot for Atalanta off a midweek Europa League tie, but I believe otherwise.

Atalanta lost the earlier meeting against Fiorentina by a 2-1 score despite utterly dominating its opposition. The Nerazzurri scored one goal on 2.3 xG, while creating five big scoring chances, per fotmob.com.

Additionally, its offense has played extraordinarily well of late. In its last four Serie A matches, Atalanta has produced a combined 5.5 xG despite scoring only twice. Included in that data set are fixtures against Inter Milan and Juventus, where Atalanta created 1.6 xG and 2.3 xG, respectively.

Now, it faces a Fiorentina side ranking eighth in goal-creating actions against and ninth in xGA per 90 minutes. Plus, in five matches against the four-best pressure-success rate teams, it has allowed below-average numbers in four of them, per fbref.com.

Even though Fiorentina has kept all but one of those sides to one goal, it’s simultaneously allowing 2.4 big scoring chances per 90 minutes in those matches. Combine that with Atalanta’s recent offensive success and I believe you’ll see multiple goals for the visitors.

Hennion’s Pick: Atalanta — Team Total Over 1.5 Goals (+100)

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