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Serie A Betting Odds, Picks, Preview, Predictions: Our 3 Best Bets, Including Wager From Venezia vs. Napoli

Serie A Betting Odds, Picks, Preview, Predictions: Our 3 Best Bets, Including Wager From Venezia vs. Napoli article feature image
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Giuseppe Maffia/NurPhoto via Getty Images. Pictured: Napoli standout Lorenzo Insigne.

A 0-0 result is never fun, but it’s less fun when you have bets on totals going over the numbers and Both Teams To Score wagers on those games.

In our previous selections, we went 0-3 thanks to not one, but two such matches featuring Atalanta vs. Lazio and Juventus vs. AC Milan. Our last result was a loss in Torino vs. Sassuolo, as two goals weren’t enough to get us at least a push on total over three goals play. 

That brings this column’s record to 6-5-2 overall as we present another trio of best bets for the weekend’s Serie A slate.

Serie A Best Bets

Inter Milan vs. AC Milan

Inter Milan Odds -120
AC Milan Odds +330
Draw +275
Over/Under 2.5 (-150 / +120)
Day | Time Saturday | 12 p.m. ET
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Although these sides played to a 1-1 draw in the first meeting of the season, the underlying metrics tell a different story.

Per fotmob.com, Inter won the expected goals battle by a 2.6-0.98 margin and created more big chances (3-0) in the tie. And although Inter had two penalties in that game — one made and one missed — they still won the xG battle in open play, holding a 0.82-0.58 xG advantage.

Given how well Inter’s offense has performed as of late (at least 1.5 xG goals in 12 of its last 13 games, plus at least 2.5 xG in six of its last 11 contests), I believe they’ll do well against a Milan defense missing Simon Kjaer and Fikayo Tomori, both of whom were available for the first clash.

Further, Zlatan Ibrahimovich is in doubt for this fixture on the Milan side. Should he fail to participate, that will leave manager Stefano Pioli with only one player averaging more than 0.5 xG per 90 minutes, per fbref.com.

Lastly, Inter is due for some positive regression based on their previous results in this head-to-head contest. The Nerazzurri have won six of the last nine contests, but have won the xG battle in eight of the last nine matchups.

Pick: Inter -0.75 (+115)

Fiorentina vs. Lazio

Fiorentina Odds +140
Lazio Odds +200
Draw +250
Over/Under 2.5 (-145 / +120)
Day | Time Saturday | 2:45 p.m. ET
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I’m staying away from the sides and instead looking at the total since I can’t believe these prices.

The departure of Dusan Vlahovic from Fiorentina leaves a grand total of zero players who have generated higher than 0.5 xG per 90 minutes. Additionally, in terms of its total xG output, Vlahovic accounted for nearly 40 percent of Fiorentina’s total.

Plus, in the first meeting at Lazio, Fiorentina only managed 0.5 xG and created zero big chances… with Vlahovic in the starting lineup.

Additionally, Fiorentina and Lazio are due for some gross negative regression on the offensive side. This season, Lazio has scored 46 goals on 30 xG, while Fiorentina has produced 41 goals on 36 xG, per fbref.com.

Those over-performances have generally come in each club’s respective venues for this fixture. At home this season, Fiorentina has scored 29 goals on 22 xG, while Lazio has tallied 18 goals on 11 xG through 12 road contests.

Further, Lazio are due for some slight positive defensive regression based on its last eight games. In those matches, I Biancocelesti has conceded 10 goals, but on 8.2 xG overall.

Given Fiorentina has decent underlying defensive metrics (eighth in xGA/90 minutes; first in shot-creating actions against; and, eighth in goal-creating actions against), I believe this will prove to be a low-scoring contest.

Pick: Total Under 2.75 Goals (+100)

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Venezia vs. Napoli

Venezia Odds +600
Napoli Odds -225
Draw +370
Over/Under 2.5 (-150 / +120)
Day | Time Sunday | 9 a.m. ET
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Don’t overthink this matchup one bit. These teams are going in opposite directions when it comes to their results against similar foes.

We’ll begin with Napoli, who have utterly dominated teams currently in the bottom five of the Serie A table. Entering Sunday’s meeting with Venezia, Napoli have played seven fixtures against the bottom quintet. In those games, the club has won all seven outright and on xG as well.

On the flip side, Venezia has struggled mightily against the current top-six sides in the Italian top flight. In eight such matches, Venezia is 1-6-1 (W-L-D), with their only victory coming undeservedly. It has also lost all eight on xG and generated less than 1.0 xG in seven of eight fixtures.

Given how well the Napoli defense has performed as of late — less than 1.0 xGA in six of the last seven games — I have extreme doubts Venezia will be able to break through against the league’s best defense (0.71 xGA per 90 minutes) in this meeting.

As for Napoli’s offense, it has been outstanding against teams in the bottom half. Through 14 fixtures, it has only been held under 1.0 xG once and produced 28 goals on 27.5 xG, per fbref.com.

For those reasons, expect Napoli to coast in their second meeting with Venezia after winning 2-0 (2.3-0.5 on xG) in the first head-to-head battle.

Pick: Napoli -1 (-135)

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