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Serie A Odds, Picks and Predictions: Inter Milan vs. AC Milan (Saturday, Oct. 17)

Serie A Odds, Picks and Predictions: Inter Milan vs. AC Milan (Saturday, Oct. 17) article feature image

Marco Canoniero/LightRocket via Getty Images. Pictured: Zlatan Ibrahimovic of Ac Milan (L) and Romelu Lukaku of FC Internazionale (R).

Serie A: Inter Milan vs. AC Milan Odds

Inter Odds +133 [BET NOW]
AC Milan Odds +195 [BET NOW]
Draw +250 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 2.5 (-141/+114) [BET NOW]
Time Saturday, 12 p.m. ET
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We follow-up the clash between Atalanta and Napoli with the Derby della Madonnina. AC Milan and Inter Milan, two historically rich clubs, meet up this Saturday at the San Siro for what should feel like a heavyweight bout.

Inter are the main challenger for the Scudetto this year, and AC Milan have played fantastic soccer ever since bringing in Stefano Pioli to manage the side. They should be safely in the top six and have a shot at the top four.

AC Milan

Pioli has done a marvelous job with the Red and Blacks. They have started out the season with three wins, and are unbeaten in their past 15 league matches. What really has improved is the attacking brand of soccer they have been playing. They have a great mix of high-level stars coupled with exciting young prospects that are improving every match out on the pitch.

I would rank AC Milan right behind Juve, Inter, and Atalanta in Serie A. The health and longevity of 39-year-old Zlatan Ibrahimović will be key this season, but it appears he doesn’t age. This is not a fully fit side due to injuries and COVID inactives, but they should still be able to hold their own against the top club in Milan.

Last season, AC Milan generated 1.72 xG/game and conceded 1.22 xGA/game. However, they really did struggle in the first half of the year. Since the restart, xG was 2.23/game and xGA was similar at 1.12/game. Pioli has them showing much more success in the attacking third, and that has continued to start the Serie A season.

The Red and Blacks have started with three wins, albeit over lower quality opposition. AC Milan have generated an impressive 2.67 xG/game and only conceded 0.36 xGA/game. I think the numbers since the restart are sustainable and expect them to make a run at the top four. They do struggle against Inter, though, and having lost four straight to their rivals, this will be an interesting test for them.

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Inter Milan

Inter came within one point of the Scudetto last season in Antonio Conte’s first season. They finished second in goal differential, only trailing Atalanta. They dropped a few essential points over the past month that did them in. To me, they are the challenger to Ronaldo and Juventus this season. Their advanced metrics were in-line with the champs.

If you ignore the fact that Juventus has the second GOAT (Behind the Argentinian of course), I think Inter have the more complete team. Conte needs a trophy for this to be considered a success and will pull the right strings to put them within striking distance.

Similar to their rivals, this is not a fully fit side due to injuries and COVID. However, they will have their best players, including their attacking duo that is formidable to say the least.

It’s been a good start to the campaign, winning two and drawing with Lazio, a top six side. The game with Lazio was pretty dry with not a ton of chances from either side. Inter generated 1.94 xG last season and conceded 1.04 xGA. That was second in Serie A in xG differential. To start the season, xG has been 2.32/game and xGA of 1.57/game.

When Conte lets them, this side can be very exciting to watch. However, he does like to be pragmatic and play a bit more defensively in big games. Inter have had success against AC Milan, winning the past four matches and holding the head-to-head edge historically.

Inter Milan vs. AC Milan Betting Pick

I think this is a bit cagey and close, but I would side with Conte and Inter to pull out the victory. I am going to bet Inter -0.25 (+102) and under 2.75 (-109) in this spot.

I don’t hate a 1-1 result here for either side to be honest, and this one is tough to cap with all of the inactive players. However, I think Inter are better and have won four straight derbies between these two. I see a clean sheet and close win for Inter.

The Picks: Inter -0.25 (+102) | Under 2.75 (-109)

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