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Serie A Odds, Picks and Predictions: Inter Milan vs. Napoli (Wednesday, Dec. 16)

Serie A Odds, Picks and Predictions: Inter Milan vs. Napoli (Wednesday, Dec. 16) article feature image

Matteo Ciambelli/DeFodi Images via Getty Images. Pictured: Diego Demme

Inter Milan vs. Napoli Odds

Inter Odds +112 [BET NOW]
Napoli Odds +225 [BET NOW]
Draw +265 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 3 (+108/-134)
Day/Time 2:45 p.m. ET
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The top of the Serie A table could get a shake up on Wednesday when Inter hosts Napoli at the San Siro.

Both teams are technically tied for second on 24 points (though Napoli is appealing a point deduction from a complicated COVID-19 issue from a forfeited match with Juventus earlier in the season) and could move into a tie with AC Milan with a victory.

That said, it’s hard to trust either side this season. Let’s dive in.

Inter Milan

Inter will turn their full attention to Serie A now that they are out of European competition. The Black and Blues finished last in their group, but their record in Serie A is nearly flawless with their lone loss coming against first-place AC Milan. Had Inter won that contest, they’d be in first place at the moment.

Inter’s success is not a mirage as they rank second in Serie A with a non-penalty expected goal differential (npxGD) of +11.91 and have scored at least two goals in eight of their 11 Serie A matches this season.

Romelu Lukaku has been a force for Antonio Conte this season and the defense is holding up with the seventh-best npxGA in Italy’s top division.

The only thing to worry about is that Inter have played a soft schedule with their only impressive win coming against a banged-up Sassuolo side. Inter profile as a team that can romp over weaker opposition but are hard to back against the tougher clubs like AC Milan, Juventus and Napoli. Draws against Lazio and Atalanta, as well as a loss to AC Milan bears that out. 

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Like Inter, a loss to AC Milan kept Napoli out of the top spot in Serie A. That said, Napoli have yet to draw a match and have some nice wins on their resume.

Gli Azzurri dominated Roma, 4-0, and Atalanta, 4-1, and are coming into this game on a three-match winning streak that has seen them outscore their opponents, 10-1.

Napoli’s strength is on defense. The Blues have conceded the fewest goals (8) in Serie A this season and their 7.34 expected goals against is over 2 xGs better than the second-best team (Udinese) in that category. Napoli’s offense is also solid, ranking sixth with 18.27 non-penalty expected goals for, but keeping teams off the scoresheet is where Gennaro Gattuso’s team excels.

Napoli vs. Inter Best Bet

This is a fun stylistic matchup as Napoli brings its league-leading defense to the San Siro to try and stop a lethal Inter attack. Both teams are in terrific form with seven wins in a row between the two of them.

That said, Napoli’s overall results are more impressive as they’ve been able to get results against tough sides, while Inter is beating up on lesser opposition. Napoli also looked impressive in their loss to AC Milan, barely winning the xG battle 1.88 to 1.84 despite a 3-1 loss.

Going to Milan to take on Inter is never easy, but Napoli feel like the more trustworthy side in a game that I think should feature some scoring.

The Bet: Napoli +0.5 (-134), Over 3 (+108)

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