Spezia vs. Sampdoria: Serie A Odds, Picks & Predictions (Jan. 11)

Spezia vs. Sampdoria Odds

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We get an island game in Italy between the 11th- and 15th-placed teams in Serie A. Who could ask for more excitement on a Monday afternoon?

Both clubs are coming off of surprising wins over Inter Milan and Napoli, respectively. It's safe to assume there should be some attacking play in this one.

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Spezia

Spezia are one of this season's newly promoted sides from Serie B. They currently sit 15th in the table after their surprising 2-1 upset win over Napoli. However, that leaves them only two points above the Serie A relegation spots because of how congested the bottom of the table is.

The win over Napoli was advantageous for a team that lost the expected goals (xG) battle 4.01-1.93, according to Understat. Before that, Spezia was on a run of poor results, which makes sense. Most of the results were warranted, as well, outside of a 2-2 draw against Bologna that could have been a win, according to xG (2.67-1.61).

Spezia rank 14th in non-penalty expected goal difference (NPxGD), narrowly above their 15th spot. Generating 1.05 xG per game isn't going to cut it. The defending is a bit better, allowing 1.62 non-penalty expected goals against (NPxGA) per game.

There's not much exciting things to say about this bunch, and surviving relegation will be priority No. 1. They will need to take advantage of their chances, as they don't get very many.

Spezia are yet to win the home match this season, and would be big for their relegation hopes if they were able to beat a decent side like Sampdoria. Given their place in the table and the recent victory over Napoli, I would expect Spezia to be aggressive in going for the three points in this one at home.

Sampdoria

Sampdoria sit 11th in the table in what has been an up-and-down season. Inconsistent is the perfect word for this team.

I do feel like they could be doing better than 11th, but they've had some puzzling results. While they can beat a team like Inter, earlier this season they lost back-to-back fixtures to Cagliari and Bologna.

Recent form is solid for manager Claudio Ranieri's men, as they have won three of their last five. Ranieri is best known for the Leicester City miracle Premier League championship. It's safe to say this job is far less desirable, but he is still a very solid manager in the Italian top flight.

The 2-1 win over Inter was an impressive one, but I wouldn't get too carried away with it. Like some games in Serie A, it really came down to penalty kicks and who converted theirs. Alexis Sanchez missed his for Inter and Antonio Candreva buried his for Samp. Then Sampdoria had all the momentum and got a second goal before Inter could get on the board.

Inter still won on xG 2.49-1.34, so there was definitely some luck involved.

On the season, Sampdoria rank one spot above Spezia in NPxGD with -6.03. They are below average in both shot creation and shots allowed.

Ranieri's side just needs to find more consistency and it could move up a few spots. However, this side is the picturesque mid-table team in Italy right now.

Betting Analysis and Pick

I am backing the over 2.5 goals in this spot at -122. Both clubs, funnily enough, have gone over three goals in 13 of their 16 games this season. That is at an 81% clip, whereas -122 implies a probability of 55%.

On top of that, both clubs are coming off of huge wins and I would expect both to go for two straight.

I also do like Sampdoria -0.25 at really cheap odds (-103). I'm not going to have that as a play, but I lean that way and think they should be around -115.

Pick: Over 2.5 (-122)