MLS Betting Odds, Preview & Picks: Seattle Sounders vs. Austin FC (Sunday, May 30)
Abbie Parr/Getty Images. Pictured: Seattle Sounders teammates Alex Roldan, left, and Raúl Ruidíaz.
- The Seattle Sounders host expansion side Austin FC in Sunday's Major League Soccer nightcap.
- The Sounders have been rolling along, kicking off their season with their best seven-match start in franchise history.
- Ian Quillen details this meeting and explains why he's backing Seattle.
Seattle vs. Austin FC Odds
|Austin FC Odds||+430|
|Over/Under||2.5 (-102 / -132)|
|Day | Time||Sunday | 9:30 p.m. ET|
|Odds updated Saturday evening via DraftKings|
Seattle looks to take sole possession of the lead in the Supporters’ Shield race heading into the international break Sunday when it hosts Austin FC in a Major League Soccer showdown.
The Sounders are off to the best seven-match start in their club history, having taken 17 of a possible 21 points. With a win or draw, they’d go back in front of New England in the race for the best regular season record.
All that stands in the way is an expansion Austin side that has lost three in a row and will be playing the seventh of eight consecutive away fixtures to open its campaign.
Is this a straightforward Seattle win? Or a stereotypical trap game?
Raúl Ruidíaz Continues Led Seattle in Lodeiro’s Absence
Seattle is coming off the news that goalkeeper Stefan Frei and attacking midfielder Nicolas Lodeiro will be out longer than originally anticipated with their respective injuries.
Neither was going to figure into this fixture, so if the update has any impact, it might be on squad morale.
However, Seattle might feel it has more to prove than in previous weeks, coming off arguably its “worst” performance, a 1-1 home draw against Atlanta.
Yes, the Sounders led for the majority of that match and only conceded through an unfortunate (but correctly awarded) penalty. Their 0.3 expected goals from the chances they created were easily their fewest of the season.
It’s that kind of game that will make manager Brian Schmetzer thankful for Peruvian striker Raúl Ruidíaz, who has six of Seattle’s 13 goals, including the opener against Atlanta.
Austin FC Going Through Typical Expansion Growing Pains
After a third loss in as many matches, the natural question to ask is if Austin is running out of energy in their exhausting road stretch. The performances suggest as much.
It’s not that Austin has lost three in a row. It’s that it has done so despite substantially exceeding their expected goals. Their actual goal difference is minus-4 over those defeats. In terms of the chances created, it should be closer to -6 in those games.
That the expansion side remains committed to a possession-oriented game is admirable. However, it’s going to need more diverse offensive production for it to work.
Danny Hoesen, Rodney Redes, Jared Stroud, Kekuta Manneh and Tomas Pochettino are among those yet to score.
Betting Analysis & Pick
The beauty of MLS is that it’s an “any given weekend” type of league.
That said, don’t overthink this one. Seattle is a couple of levels above Austin and it’s also a bad matchup.
Austin wants the ball, but is still learning how to make the most of it. Seattle is perfectly content to let you have it, then punishing you for not capitalizing.
Take the favorite at heavy -167 odds, which has an implied 62.5% probability. The Sounders aren’t guaranteed winners, but I feel pretty confident saying they’d win this fixture more than five out of eight times.
Pick: Sounders ML (-167)