Champions League Odds, Picks & Predictions for Krasnodar vs. Sevilla (Tuesday, Nov. 24)

Krasnodar vs. Sevilla Odds

Krasnodar and Sevilla meet three weeks after a five-goal thriller led to a 3-2 Sevilla win. Krasnodar went up 2-0 in the first half and went up a man when Jesus Navas was sent off right before the end of the first half. However, the Russian outfit was unable to hold on to the advantage, as Youssef En-Nesyri scored two second-half goals to give Sevilla the win.

Krasnodar is struggling in the Russian Premier League, currently sitting in ninth place in the league and only winning one of its last seven matches in all competitions. It has only one point through its first three matches in Group E and needs a result if it's going to finish in third and qualify for the Europa League.

Sevilla is tied on points with Chelsea in the group and will need all three points if it's going to finish atop the group. It's currently sitting in seventh place in La Liga after back-to-back wins over Celta Vigo and Osasuna. It will, however, have to make the trip to Russia without its captain in Navas, who will be suspended for the match.

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Krasnodar

The 2020-21 campaign has been a struggle for Krasnodar. After finishing third in the Russian Premier League last season, the Russian outfit is all the way down in ninth place after its first 15 matches. Offense hasn't been the issue. It's scoring the fourth-most xG per match in the RPL at 1.61. However, the Russian Premier League and Champions League are two very different competitions.

So far through it's first three matches, the biggest issue for Krasnodar has been its defense. It is allowing a whopping 2.43 xG per match, including 2.20 xG to 10-man Sevilla three weeks ago.

Krasnodar's offense has also been struggling to create quality chances, as it averages only 0.89 xG per match from non-penalty scoring chances. It's hard to imagine it'll be able to create steady chances against a stout defense like Sevilla's.

Sevilla

Although Sevilla is currently in seventh place in La Liga, it's been one of the best defensive teams in the league since the restart last season. Los Nervionenses have allowed only 0.86 xG per match, which is second only to Atletico Madrid in La Liga.

Sevilla has been outstanding in Champions League play thus far. It already has a +3.5 expected goal differential through its first three matches in Group E.

Considering Sevilla was able to create most of its 2.20 xG on Krasnodar with only 10 men on the field, how much better will it do with a full 11?

Projections and Pick

I think we will see a much different match the second time around between these two clubs. Sevilla's defense limited Krasnodar's non-penalty chances to just 0.70 xG the first time around, and I think it will do it again on Tuesday.

I only have Krasnodar projected for 0.79 xG in this match, so I think there's some value on its team total at under 0.5 at +185.

Pick: Krasnodar Team Total Under 0.5 (+185)