Premier League Betting Odds & Pick: Newcastle United vs. Crystal Palace (Tuesday, February 2)

Premier League Betting Odds & Pick: Newcastle United vs. Crystal Palace (Tuesday, February 2) article feature image
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Clive Brunskill/Getty Images. Pictured: Newcastle United standout Callum Wilson.

  • Two sides in the bottom half meet in the north of England on Tuesday as Newcastle hosts Crystal Palace.
  • The Tyneside club is coming off a surprising win over Everton, in which Callum Wilson scored a brace.
  • Jeremy Pond breaks down where the betting value lies at St. James' Park.

Newcastle vs. Crystal Palace Odds

Newcastle Odds +190
Crystal Palace Odds +160
Draw +215
Over/Under 2.5 (-103/-122) 
Day | Time Tuesday | 3:15 p.m. ET
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Clubs coming off much-needed victories go at it Tuesday when Newcastle United welcomes Crystal Palace to Selhurst Park for a Premier League match.

The Magpies ended their nine-game winless streak with a surprise, 2-0 win over Everton last time out. The home triumph moved Newcastle to 22 points on the season, pushing them into 15th place in England’s top flight.

On the other side, things went just as well for the Eagles in their 2-1 home victory over Wolves, which sent them into 13th place on 26 points. It was the Eagles’ first road league win in nearly two months, with their last three-point effort coming against West Bromwich Albion on Dec. 6 at The Hawthorns.

Newcastle

That surprise win over Everton had to do wonders for Newcastle’s psyche. More importantly, it steered the Magpies seven points clear of the drop zone and out of harm’s way for the time being.

Manager Steve Bruce, who has been on the Tyneside hot seat for weeks, saw his side grab a result it actually deserved in my opinion. Newcastle held a 1.8-1.2 xGF advantage over Everton, with Callum Wilson striking for both goals deep in the second half.

Now, Bruce’s club must bring the momentum from that showing to Selhurst Park, where it will face a foe coming off a solid win of its own.

If you take a look at Newcastle’s advanced metrics, you will find the numbers perfectly align with their place in the standings. The Magpies sit on 19.5 expected goals and a brutal 29.9 expected goals against, resulting in a lackluster -10.4 xGDiff and -0.49 xGDiff/90 minutes.

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Crystal Palace

The Eagles’ rollercoaster of a season continued this past weekend at Selhurst Park. The victory pushed Crystal Palace’s record to 3-4-5 (W-L-D) over the course of their last 12 fixtures, showing you how up and down this team flows.

Wilfried Zaha continues to lead the line, recording a team-best nine goals thus far. Zaha got some help last time out, as it was Eberechi Eze who struck for the game winner 15 minutes into the second half against Wolves.

Crystal Palace is in no real danger of going down this season, but finishing in the top half of the table is a realistic goal. The Eagles are just five points back of 10th-place Arsenal, so a second win in a row would be a positive step in the right direction.

If you look at Crystal Palace’s advanced metrics, they actually mirror Newcastle’s subpar figures. The Eagles are on 18.5 expected goals and brutal 28.8 expected goals against that result in a subpar -10.3 xGDiff and -0.49 for xGDiff/90 minutes.

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Betting Analysis & Picks

Recent history is on the side of one club in this match and that’s Newcastle. The Magpies are unbeaten in five of their last six meetings with the Eagles at St. James’ Park, plus they’ve earned shutouts in seven of their last nine games against them.

With that in mind, I am backing Newcastle on the Draw No Bet line. I think Wilson and the Magpies will do just enough to squeak out all three points in this fixture. Throw in the fact Crystal Palace has not won back-to-back games the entire season, and I like my chances in this spot.

I will also play the total to stay under the number as well. There have been two goals or less in eight of the last nine contests between these clubs across all competitions. That alone has me feeling confident in this wager.

Picks: Newcastle — Draw No Bet (+100) | Total Under 2.5 Goals (-141)

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