Wednesday MLS Betting Odds and Picks: Sporting Kansas City vs. FC Dallas, Portland vs. Los Angeles Galaxy (Sept. 2)
Emilee Chinn/Getty Images. Pictured: Diego Chara, left, and teammate Jaroslaw Niezgoda of the Portland Timbers.
- Two Western Conference showdowns headline Wednesday night's MLS action, beginning with Sporting Kansas City vs. FC Dallas at 8:30 p.m. ET.
- The Portland Timbers face the LA Galaxy at 10:30 p.m. ET, and Jeremy Pond thinks both games will be high-scoring affairs.
- Read Pond's full preview for both matches and see his betting picks below.
Sporting Kansas City vs. FC Dallas Odds
|Sporting KC odds||-125 [BET NOW]|
|FC Dallas odds||+320 [BET NOW]|
|Draw||+270 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||2.5 (-150/+114) [BET NOW]|
|Time||8:30 p.m. ET|
|TV||MLS Live on ESPN+|
Numerous matches take place Wednesday across the Major League Soccer scene, highlighted by two Western Conference showdowns.
Things kick off when Sporting Kansas City battles FC Dallas at Children’s Mercy Park, with the host hoping to rebound from an 0-1-1 showing in its most recent outings.
Sporting Kansas City suffered a stunning 5-2 loss against Houston midweek before picking up a road draw against Colorado, which kept it in first place in the conference standings.
On the other side, FC Dallas is coming off an impressive 3-1 win over Minnesota United. The Texas side, which had been struggling offensively, received goals from three different players and has to be optimistic entering this latest tilt.
Looking at the data and statistics, Sporting Kansas City currently sits at 6.3 expected goals and one of the league-worst expected goals against numbers at 7.2 for a -0.9 xGDiff figure, along with a -0.2 xGDiff/90 minutes.
Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.
In contrast, FC Dallas actually has better stats when comparing differentials in the same categories (6.8 xGF/5.7 xGA = +1.2 xGDiff and +0.19 xGDiff/90), and that makes this club quite intriguing in this spot.
With everything in mind, I am backing Sporting Kansas City to get the job done and collect all three points. The numbers might tell a different story, but the revenge factor in this match outweighs everything in my opinion.
The previous meeting between these two sides resulted in FC Dallas handing Sporting Kansas City a 6-0 shellacking on Decision Day last season and I think the host will be ready to avenge that terrible showing.
I’m also going to sprinkle a little on the total going over the number as well. There have been at least three goals scored in the last five contests between these clubs and I see that trend continuing in this game.
The Bets: Sporting Kansas City (-125); Total Over 2.5 Goals (-167)
Portland vs. Los Angeles Galaxy Odds
|Portland odds||+108 [BET NOW]|
|LA Galaxy odds||+210 [BET NOW]|
|Draw||+280 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||3.5 (+114/-148) [BET NOW]|
|Time||10:30 p.m. ET|
|TV||MLS Live on ESPN+|
The Timbers come into this conference match off a disappointing 4-4 home draw against Real Salt Lake. Portland held a two-goal lead in the 85th minute before conceding twice in the final moments to drop points on its home pitch.
Los Angeles, on the other hand, is in the midst of a brilliant stretch after picking up derby wins against Los Angeles Football Club and San Jose.
When making statistical comparisons, Portland actually trails Los Angeles in overall numbers. The Timbers boast 5.0 expected goals and 6.0 expected goals against for a -1.0 xGDiff figure, along with a -0.26 xGDiff/90 minutes.
In contrast, Los Angeles has better stats in all similar categories (5.9 xGF/2.5 xGA = +3.4 xGDiff and +0.61 xGDiff/90), and much like FC Dallas, become interesting in this game.
On paper, this really is a tough match to handicap. Portland has been a shell of itself since that impressive run to the MLS is Back Tournament crown in Orlando earlier this summer, which is shocking to say the least.
Then, there’s Los Angeles, which looked poor at that same competition and lost Javier “Chicharito” Hernandez to injury, yet has pulled off impressive back-to-back wins over conference rivals.
That said, I am backing Portland to grab the victory. The Timbers have won the last two contests — including a 2-1 win in Orlando — and hammered the Galaxy by a 4-0 margin in their most recent meeting at Providence Park.
I am also playing the total to go over an alternative number. I think 3.5 goals is too much, so I will buy it down to three goals and play it with confidence.
The Bets: Portland +108; Total Over 3 Goals (-141)