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West Ham United vs. Manchester United Preview & Pick: Hammers to Nail United

West Ham United vs. Manchester United Preview & Pick: Hammers to Nail United article feature image
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Photo by Julian Finney/Getty Images.

  • West Ham United takes on Manchester United in the Premier League on Sunday.
  • Who has the edge in the betting markets?
  • Brett Pund has your match preview and best bet.

West Ham United vs. Manchester United Odds

Man United Odds -145
West Ham Odds +390
Draw +300
Over/Under 2.5 (-130 / +105)
Day | Time Saturday |  10 a.m. ET
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Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

Closing out this week’s action in the Premier League, Manchester United welcomes West Ham United to Old Trafford on Sunday.

The Red Devils enter the match in solid form, holding a seven-match unbeaten streak across all competitions.

Meanwhile, the visitors are recovering from a rough start to the campaign, moving up the table after recent results.

This should be a great match to end the EPL slate, and I feel the betting value lies with the traveling Hammers.

Manchester United Finding Key Form

Life under new manager Erik ten Hag got off to a rocky start, but his squad has rebounded with a great string of results to come into this fixture in sixth.

Since opening the campaign with consecutive defeats, ten Hag’s team has only lost one league match in the last nine games, which was a 6-3 loss to Manchester City.

This run has included multiple impressive victories at home, beating Liverpool, Arsenal and Tottenham all at the ‘Theater of Dreams.’

However, the Red Devils have been a bit lucky in their results, with the team owning a +0.5 xGDiff and ranking in the bottom half of the table in expected goals (xG) allowed per 90 minutes (1.25), according to fbref.com.

West Ham Looking to Right the Ship

United weren’t the only club to get off to a slow start as West Ham lost their first three league matches to open up the 2022-23 season.

Veteran manager David Moyes has steadied the ship, and the Hammers are starting to pick up results.

Moyes can thank his defense for the big turnaround, as it ranks in the top three in the English top flight in big scoring chances allowed per game (1.417) and xG surrendered per match (0.94).

As the summer signings of Lucas Paquetá and Gianluca Scamacca continue to get acclimated with the squad, you should see the West Ham attack improve to complement the defense.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

When I look at the odds at DraftKings, the home side is listed as the favorite at -145 odds on the moneyline to go with a total of 2.5 goals. There have been improvements for United, but I feel the club is still overvalued in this spot.

So, my best bet is to back West Ham getting +0.75 goals on the Asian handicap at -110.

The Hammers have been extremely unlucky on the road this season, and they are due a positive result. In six games away from home, Moyes’ team holds a +3.2 xGDiff, which is second in the EPL behind Manchester City.

The East London club only has three goals compared to the eight xG, and West Ham have won the xG battle in every road fixture, which includes trips to Liverpool and Chelsea.

Another key aspect in this match will be how each side responds after midweek games in European competitions. The Red Devils played most of their starters in the Europa League victory over Sheriff, while Moyes rotated his squad to keep his first-teamers fresh for the trip to Manchester.

I have these two teams rated equally, which is why I think this is a great spot to back the visitors.

The Pick: West Ham +0.75 (-110)

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